Coronavirus: over the worst or more to come?

The number of those infected with coronavirus – named Covid-19 by the World Health Organisation – has now reached 43,143 with 1,016 deaths attributed to it. The vast majority of the infections have been in China, as have all the deaths bar two. With the first coronavirus vaccine expected in roughly 18 months the vital debate now is how far and fast the virus will spread.

Chinese authorities believe the worst is now over. Zhong Nanshan, China’s leading respiratory expert who lead the fight against SARs in 2003, predicted in an interview with Reuters that the virus was hitting its peak in China and the outbreak may be over as early as April. However, his earlier predicted peak proved premature.

Indeed, other have given more pessimistic views of the situation. The director-general of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warned that the emergency while mainly affecting China for the time being represented a “very grave threat for the rest of the world”. He added the increasing numbers of infectious people who had never been to China could be the “tip of the iceberg”.

Nevertheless, China seems keen to get back to business as usual in order to limit damage to the economy and assuage public anger over the handling of the outbreak. The death of a doctor, who had tried to warn the people about the disease early on only to be arrested by the police, from coronavirus sparked a boom in public criticism of the government – briefly overwhelming online censors.  Meanwhile, China’s growth has been forecast to  slow due to the virus, unwelcome news following the lowest rate in three decades last year of 6.1%.

Still, some 59 million people remain quarantined in the vital manufacturing province of Hubei.  Major companies also seem to be struggling to get production back on track in the face of these disruptions and the ongoing risk of infection.

The potential impact on global business should the virus continue to spread is huge – and worries have seen markets wobble across the world. In the US the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell called, coronavirus “a major unknown” and warned of potential “disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy”. In the UK sales of active equity funds already dropped by more than 90 per cent last month due to fears about the outbreak.

The British government also seems to be taking a cautious approach and has given itself powers to allow forcible quarantine of those it suspects might be carrying the coronavirus. So far eight people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, and British returnees from Wuhan have been subject to a quarantine that ends Thursday. Two GPs surgeries have also been closed in Brighton following reports that staff working there were among the infected.

Making a statement to the House of Commons today on these new powers the health secretary, Matt Hancock, stated they were necessary to limit infection and help the NHS do its job. He also warned that “The situation will get worse before it gets better” though for the moment “the risk to the public has not changed and remains moderate”.