Could Ebrahim Raisi be Iran’s lucky president?

There’s a scene in Sacha Baron Cohen’s film “The Dictator” in which the despotic protagonist is about to take part in a running race. He fires his pistol in the air to start the event, and then shoots all the other runners. A clip of this has been doing the rounds on the few remaining Iranian social media platforms still available, acting as a metaphor for this week’s presidential election.

About 600 candidates applied to stand, all but seven were told to sit down and five of the seven then dropped out. Sunni Muslims, Baha’is, Christians, and Jews didn’t even bother to fill in the forms as the president must be a Shia Muslim. The Guardian Council, which vets candidates and is controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, always weeds out anyone insufficiently wedded to the basic tenets of the 1979 revolution but this year excelled itself by disqualifying anyone under 40 or over 70. This, along with other impediments, conveniently excluded most relative moderates as well as conservatives such as former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani who might get in the way of the favoured candidate Ebrahim Raisi.

This pre-vote engineering is expected to deliver Raisi victory when the result is announced over the weekend. Yet it may also deliver a record low turnout and thus further damage the legitimacy of the presidency. Even Larijani’s brother, Sadeq, who sits on the Council attacked what he called “indefensible” disqualifications.

Raisi, 60, is a conservative cleric who came second behind Hassan Rouhani in the 2017 presidential election and has served as Chief Justice Minister. He helped oversee the purges following the Iran-Iraq war which resulted in thousands of dissidents being executed. He has close links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its huge business empire. In recent years he has backed the crackdown against protests over the economy which morphed into anti-regime demonstrations in which up to 1,500 people were shot dead by the security forces.

Up against him is the relative moderate Abdolnasr Hemmati, an uncharismatic technocrat, former head of Iran’s central bank, and supportive enough of the system to be allowed to stand. However, as huge numbers of reformists are expected to boycott the election he’s unlikely to win. Raisi’s expected victory is further boosted by favourable coverage from the state media outlets and because there is nothing to split the conservative vote.

Whatever the result it’s likely the Iran-US talks over the nuclear deal will continue. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPLA) was agreed in 2015 during President Obama’s administration but President Trump pulled the Americans out in 2018 since when the Iranians have broken its terms leading to US sanctions. President Biden wants to reinstate the agreement and even extend its terms. The price will be lifting the sanctions which have been devastating for Iran. Last year the economy shrank by almost 5 per cent, imports have become expensive, and exports are limited.

If an agreement is reached, and sanctions are lifted late this year, and assuming Raisi wins – he may be a lucky president. With the banking and oil sectors freed up to trade internationally, and inward investment beginning to flow, the economy may grow during his presidency. This in turn would position him to take over from the 82-year-old Supreme Leader who is thought to be in ill health.

An agreement with the Americans would reduce tensions with Washington, and, as a sop to the Europeans, prisoners such as Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who are effectively hostages, could be released. Iran’s underlying foreign policy posture is unlikely to change, however. As an Iranian hawk, Raisi supports the idea of “forward defence” in which Tehran projects power across the Middle East via its control of militia in Iraq and Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and its own forces in Syria.  

At home the priority is the economy, but the focus on that must be seen in the context of being important to the conservatives in order to guard the principles of the revolution. The authorities were seriously alarmed during demonstrations over the past three years when chants were heard against the Supreme Leader including “Death to the Dictator”. Disquiet over foreign policy was expressed with chants of “No Gaza, No Lebanon. I give my life for Iran” – a reference to the regime subsidising Hamas and Hezbollah while people at home went hungry.

If Raisi can get the economy going the authorities can maintain their grip on society. That is their foremost priority which is why the hardliners are prepared to explore the Iran deal. What they won’t countenance is a political system which could threaten their rule.

The genuine reformists are arguing that if their boycott results in a historically low turnout, not only will Raisa lack authority but so will the system, as the hardliners will control every organ of the state. There’s a logic to this take but also a flaw if the economy is turned around. Besides, the Ayatollahs fired the starting gun, and then metaphorically shot the runners. The fix is in. The Supreme Leader has already won.