Could Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul succeed?

Ukrainian and Russian delegations are heading to Istanbul today for a fresh round of face-to-face negotiations, as Putin’s war in Ukraine grinds on.

The talks, expected to run until Wednesday, are being held after Ukraine’s President Zelensky showed he was willing to compromise over the weekend. He told Russian journalists that sovereignty and territorial integrity remain priorities during this next round of talks, but that Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status in order to curb the fighting. 

This development – which raises some hope that we could be closer to seeing a peace deal signed between Moscow and Kyiv – offered a boost to London’s equity markets. The FTSE 100 opened 29 points higher this morning. 

Neutrality is not the same as demilitarisation – a demand Zelensky has refused to discuss. But it would mean Ukraine renouncing its intention to join NATO – an intention Russia cited as a reason for launching its invasion in the first place. 

While Zelensky’s comments may sound like something of a breakthrough, there are some fairly major caveats.

Firstly, If Ukraine were to adopt neutrality, Zelensky says it would have to go to a referendum and be guaranteed by third parties. Even if Ukrainian citizens did then agree to such a concession, this process could take up to a year. 

What’s more, despite being prepared to abandon his goal of NATO membership, Zelensky insisted over the weekend that “effective guarantees of security are a must.” This comment was largely directed at allied Western countries. In other words, he wants legally binding protection from countries such as UK an US that they would actively prevent future attacks on Ukraine. 

Then there’s the murky question of what exactly Russia wants from this war. It’s unclear to what extent Putin has scaled back his ambitions in light of mounting Russian losses.

Moscow’s military setbacks and stalled advance on Kyiv may well have put paid to any wider ambitions to expand Russian territory beyond Ukraine.

But as things stand, the neutrality of Ukraine is unlikely to be enough for Putin. 

The big sticking point remains the fate of Crimea and the eastern Donbas region – areas Moscow wants recognised as Russian and independent respectively. On Sunday, Ukraine’s military intelligence warned that Russia is attempting to split Ukraine in two, separating the eastern and southern regions from the rest of the country – turning it into a European version of North and South Korea. 

One solution being proposed by the Turkish government, according to The Times, is that Crimea and the Donbas could be held by Moscow under a long-term lease, similar to Britain’s control over Hong Kong from 1898 to 1997, with their future decided at a later date.

While Zelensky’s comments over the weekend on “neutrality” generated the most attention, it’s important to note that, in the same interview, he also said that he is willing to “compromise” over the Donbas. Yet this particular concession being floated by the Turks may well seem far too drastic for Kyiv – especially when Moscow has so far failed to capture a single major Ukrainian city. 

The backdrop to the talks in Turkey are claims in the Wall Street Journal that ex-Chelsea FC owner, Roman Abramovich, was poisoned during a visit to Kyiv on 3 March, though has since recovered.

The oligarch has been acting as a middle-man in the negotiations, ferrying messages between Putin and Zelensky.

If true, it’s a worrying curveball in a peace process that could derail at any time.