Covid: what’s Boris’ plan for winter?

Boris Johnson has laid out the government’s coronavirus winter plan in a Downing Street press conference this afternoon, warning the nation that, 18 months on, the pandemic is still far from over.
 
Despite the PM’s past reassurances that vaccines were our “way out” of the pandemic – and all the talk of having to “learn to live with this virus” – he did not rule out the possibility of a U-turn on the “one-way” road to freedom. 
 
Johnson said that, in essence, the winter plan was just “to keep going”: this will mean ramping up vaccination efforts, pressing on with free NHS testing, allocating an extra £5.4bn to the NHS over the next six months to fund its Covid response and leading global efforts to accelerate vaccination. 
 
And yet, crucially, his speech also prepared the ground for the possible reintroduction of restrictions. If the winter pressure on the NHS becomes “unsustainable”, the government will resort to “Plan B”. This could involve the return of mandatory masks, working from home advice and, sure enough, vaccine passports.
 
But how likely is Plan B?
 
Daily confirmed cases are currently hovering at around 30,000, though infection rates have dropped slightly in the past few days. On Monday, 61 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded. It’s worth pointing out that flu deaths can reach 300 to 400 a day during a bad winter. 
 
As for Covid vaccination, 80 per cent of all over-16s in the UK are now double jabbed and over 90 per cent of the population is thought to have coronavirus antibodies. As a result, the MRC Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge estimates that the infection fatality rate for Covid – in other words, the number of infections needed to cause one death – has dropped from under 100 to around 500. 
 
An additional shield as the autumn approaches will be the booster jab programme. The PM finally confirmed today that the government will “motor ahead” with a booster rollout. From next week onwards, all over-50s will be offered a single dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine six months after their second dose. This top-up will tackle any waning immunity in the oldest and most vulnerable. 
 
Monday’s decision to start vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds from next week will also help to combat a surge in cases as schools re-open across the country, although whether  
 
Despite these protective measures, many are still fearing a repeat of last year, as the warm weather subsides and Brits ditch outdoor activities to huddle together indoors. And this time round, infection rates are at a higher base level from which to multiply: this time last year, there were 4,000 daily cases and 1,000 Covid patients in hospital. Today, the figures are 30,000 and 8,000.
 
Fears of overwhelmed hospitals are compounded by the warnings from doctors that the flu risk this winter could be severe. Last year, flu was virtually non-existent thanks to social distancing measures. But diminished immunity in the population means it could return with a vengeance. 
 
If hospitalisations do start to spiral out of control, it’s still not clear just how dramatically Johnson would be willing to row back on our freedoms. 
 
The PM’s refusal to rule out vaccine passports and possible further extensions of the Coronavirus Act suggest he’s destined to be at loggerheads with lockdown-sceptic Tory rebels for quite some time longer. 
 
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are urging the government to provide a “cast-iron guarantee” that schools will not be shut again.
 
Reintroducing lockdown would be a huge political blow for Johnson. The government has also denied rumours that it is planning a “firebreak” lockdown around October half-term. And those close to the PM insist he is “dead-set” against resorting to a full lockdown, according to Politico.
 
Johnson said today that Plan B contains “a number of different shots in the locker”. But, he insisted, the government would not use them all at once. Here’s hoping.