Trump is terrible but Biden would be worse

Around ten years ago, there was a regular occurrence at London drinks parties. A confident-looking chap would be asked what he did. Suddenly, his self-esteem would evaporate. He would shrink into himself and look down at his feet, before taking a deep breath and finding the courage to mumble: “I’m…a …banker.” Today, something similar happens with sophisticated Americans. They open the conversation with a pre-emptive cringe: “You must think that we are an awful country.” “Absolutely not” I will reply. “America is a wonderful nation with a glorious past and tens of millions of people who believe that the best is yet to come. But I understand your feelings. It is bad that the main issue in this Election is who is less unsuited to become President.”

A few months ago, one such sophisticated American was giving his son a telling-off. Truculent at home and disobedient in school, the lad’s behaviour was not unprecedented among young adolescent males. Father finished off by saying: “If you go on like this, I don’t know what’ll become of you.” Suddenly, the sullenness gave way to a grin. “Easy, Dad, I’ll be President of the United States.” That helps to explain why Donald Trump is not fit to be re-elected.

The White House has never been a strict school of morals. Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy are both in the Pantheon of American political heroes. Both had complex private lives. No President was more cultured than Thomas Jefferson. But his library – and his wine cellar – were financed out of slavery. Even so, there are standards, at least for public consumption. There is a phrase which the young often come across before they know what all the words mean: hypocrisy is the tribute which vice pays to virtue. Well, there will always be vice in this fallen world, so it is desirable that it should pay such a tribute. The White House is a serene building, as if the Enlightenment values of the founding fathers had been transmuted into architecture. Whatever occasionally went on behind closed doors, Americans who respected their country could feel that the Presidential residence expressed its fundamental decency. Not these days. It is no longer a matter of closed doors, but of open tweets. Vice paying tribute to virtue: this President thinks that virtue is for suckers. The White House has become a whited sepulchre.

Donald Trump stands convicted of narcissistic vulgarity on a colossal scale, and a self-destructive one. Suppose that he had tried to rein in his behaviour: to reach out to fellow Americans to whom he was the deplorable of deplorables? If he had done that, he would be on the way to re-election. Instead, he set out to rub his ghastliness in the open political wounds that he created. It would seem that the only point which the defence lawyers could make in his favour is that he is not a hypocrite.

Yet there may be other mitigating circumstances. There is a question which ought to be asked, even if it appals Trump’s critics: has he been altogether a bad President? He has certainly done nothing to tackle the budget deficit. But with the partial exception of Bill Clinton, that has been true of every recent President. They have all subscribed to the Ronald Reagan dictum: “Why should I worry about the deficit? It’s big enough to take care of itself.” One day, there will surely be a reckoning. Mitch Feierstein wrote an alarmingly persuasive book, Planet Ponzi, in which he argues that the entire global financial system is a Ponzi scheme. Certainly, Donald Trump has done nothing to put that right. But at least his tax cuts have stimulated growth, which must be one of the answers to the deficit problem. Joe Biden plans huge increases in social programmes, which would divert resources to less productive economic areas. So, purely on the economy, Trump’s record and instincts are better than Biden’s.

What about foreign affairs? Here, it is too early to make a full assessment. North Korea has been contained, but as Kim-Jong Loon is still in power, there is an abiding threat, however latent. As for the Middle East, if he did not lack both the generosity of spirit and the historical knowledge to make such a claim, this President could assert that he has made more progress in that troubled region than any of his predecessors since Jimmy Carter. That said, there is a long-term difficulty. Israel has found a modus vivendi with several Arab states, but this appears to involve writing the Palestinians out of history. That cannot be an enduring solution. Any alternative would need different political leadership in Israel, writing Benjamin Netanyahu out of history, but that does not seem likely any time soon. There is also the question of Iran. Here,  Trump may benefit from his reputation. Although he has been reluctant to send American troops into action, America’s potential foes must fear that this President is capable of anything. If a man is known to have a savage rottweiler, people will be reluctant to take short-cuts across his lawn.

In an unstable world, it would help to have a stable President: one who would employ the nearest available figure to a young Henry Kissinger. That is not going to happen under Donald Trump. Would it under Joe Biden? There is a case for a faineant President: another Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. Yet during dangerous times, that would be a gamble. There are those who claim that President Biden would be more respectful of international institutions than President Trump has been. But those institutions will stumble on. The Americans will assist in that, when it is in their interests to do so. That is what happens under all Presidents. Perhaps we could conclude that foreign affairs do not provide grounds for replacing Trump with Biden.

There are other matters. Joe Biden does not have a first-class brain. No-one who plagiarises Neil Kinnock could possibly claim that. Among recent Presidents, the closest parallel is Gerald Ford; by no means a bad President. Biden has one advantage. He looks the part. A good old boy, who could have gone into politics as a Republican, he was an old-fashioned Senator, who made friends across the aisle, knowing how to squeeze elbows and do deals. In these mean-spirited and partisan days, those skills would be useful, but the temper of the times is against them. Even so, Joe Biden could have been a unifier, resurrecting some New Deal language, promising Americans a good day’s pay for a good day’s work. Meeting in Fred’s diner in Philly, Hank Hard-hat and Joe Six-pack would have liked all that. No-one would have been telling them that they were deplorable. They would have voted Biden. In 2016.

But now? Since 2016, stuff has happened. Biden is over the hill. He might not be the most unfit man ever to be elected President. That was probably Roosevelt in 1944, but look how long he lasted. An American friend said recently: “Whom do I vote for? Someone who is demented, or someone who has dementia?” What a choice. There has been other stuff since 2016. For some decades, the Democrats were the American party. The New Deal and FDR had helped them to marginalise the Republicans. “Compassionate at home/strong oversea/good enough for Roosevelt/ Good enough for me.” That was a creed which could unite middle America. But that era is long gone, thanks to Ronald Reagan. Instead of trying to understand Reagan’s appeal, the Democratic party has been lured to the Left: to identity politics and culture wars.

Whoever wins, this is going to be crisis material. The great argument for democracy is that political conflict moves from the streets to the legislature. But that will only happen if the losers accept the results. In America at present, that is unlikely. Since the Civil War, the country has never been more divided. In the Hollywood version, anyone who turns off a federal highway will find himself among psychopathic religious maniacs and sexual perverts. Each household will have enough weaponry to equip a platoon of marines. The coastal liberal visitor who has stumbled into all his will be lucky to escape with his life. In much of present-day middle America, there is a belief that coastal snobs would never sing “God Bless America”, for two reasons. They do not believe in God. They would never want to bless America. A few decades ago, Richard Hofstadter wrote The Paranoid Style in American Politics” – which was principally a commentary on the Right. Now, it applies to large numbers of Americans, on both sides.

If Biden wins, the Left-wing of the Democratic Party will insist that it was they who delivered the vote. The younger Joe Biden would have had no truck with any of that. Now? Who would be in control? But if Trump did win, expect serious social disorder. The losers would not take their defeat stoically. The extreme wing of the Democratic Left neither likes its country nor respects its institutions. That leads to a tricky question. What is the best way to deal with that? Is it a Trump win, which might persuade sensible Democrats that they have to break with the America-haters if they are ever to return to power? Or could the Democrats, once in the White House, restore common sense? It is not clear. Anyone who believes that voting Trump is the only way to sort out the Democrat crazies is not necessarily talking nonsense.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, there is likely to be violence. The Election result will encourage that. If Biden wins on the night, life will be easier. Having denounced postal ballots, Trump could hardly insist that nothing will be decided until they are counted. Mind you, given him, anything is possible. But suppose millions of Bidenistas have voted early, so that President Trump is ahead in Tuesday’s ballots. The consequence would be the mother of all legal actions: chaos and litigation: law accompanied by lawlessness.

That is not just a supposition. It is almost certain to happen. There is a further and final question. Whom do you want to win? I am almost glad that I do not have a vote. If I did, I would cast it… for Donald Trump. Whatever the outcome of this election, millions of sensible Americans will wish to ensure that the Great Republic is never again afflicted by such a wretched choice. On balance, I believe that Trump’s re-election would assist that process. There is every reason to lose faith in him. There is no reason to repose faith in Mr Biden. It will be a dreadful outcome, but at least it will only last for four years. Despite all the gloom – impossible to overestimate – America will survive.