DHL cargo plane crash raises the spectre of Russian sabotage
Is Europe ready to combat Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare?
Europe is once again confronted with the threat of Russian sabotage operations after a cargo plane was forced to crash land in Lithuania this morning, killing one of the aircraft’s crew members and hospitalising three others.
According to flight-tracking data, the aircraft lined up to land in Vilnius International Airport before crashing into a residential building a few kilometres short of the runway at around 5:28 am local time (3:28 am GMT). The cargo plane, which was flying from the German city of Leipzig to Vilnius, was being operated by Madrid-based airline Swiftair on behalf of the German logistics giant DHL.
At this stage, the authorities in both Germany and Lithuania are still investigating what caused the crash. The German interior and transport ministries have said that they cannot yet provide any information and will be working closely with the Lithuanian government. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre has suggested that “technical problems” are being investigated as the cause of the crash.
Nonetheless, the possibility of Russian-sponsored terrorism is also being taken seriously. Both the head of Lithuania’s intelligence agency, Darius Jauniškis, and the country’s police chief, Arūnas Paulauskas, have said that this possibility cannot be ruled out.
The incident will be cause for concern across European capitals, where incidents of Russian covert operations and sabotage have been increasing over the last six months. In early November, western security officials revealed that two incendiary devices ignited in DHL logistics hubs in Leipzig and Birmingham in July were part of a covert Russian operation. According to these officials, the aim of the operation was to test how to get incendiary devices onto planes bound for the United States and Canada.
Earlier this month, the national security adviser to the Lithuanian president told the Reuters news agency that “this is part of unconventional…operations against NATO countries that are being undertaken by Russian military intelligence.” He added that such “operations are being escalated: their focus is moving…to infrastructure and actions that could end up killing people.”
Could this morning’s plane crash be the latest act in a recent series of Russian sabotage operations? A former senior British military commander said that a technical fault and a Russian sabotage operation are equally plausible explanations for the crash in Vilnius this morning. He noted: “Russia is currently reminding NATO and the European nations that they are still there.” A DHL aircraft might be seen by Russia as “a lower risk target – enough to be noteworthy without being spectacular enough to risk further alienation.”
Several European and NATO security officials have warned recently that Russian sabotage operations are designed to allow the Kremlin to wage unconventional hybrid warfare against the West without crossing the threshold of triggering NATO’s Article 5 – the military alliance’s collective defence mechanism.
Whatever the cause of the Vilnius crash, one thing is certain: as Russia ramps up its sabotage operations across the continent, policymakers will need to learn how to combat the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare – and fast. The continent as a whole has been lethargic so far in rising to the challenge posed by Russia’s unorthodox and inventive methods.
There are encouraging signs that western capitals are beginning to formulate a more serious response to these security threats. Today, in a speech to the NATO Cyber Defence Conference in London, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Pat McFadden, announced an £8 million investment to create a new national laboratory for AI security research.
McFadden declared that “Cyber war is now a daily reality” and said that Britain’s defences were being “constantly” tested by hostile powers such as Russia, which “has targeted our media, our telecoms, our political and democratic institutions, and our energy infrastructure.” He urged NATO powers to “stay one step ahead in this new AI arms race”.
This is a promising development; however, words are one thing, and action is another. So long as European countries continue to shrink from the risk of further escalation and fail to confront the Kremlin on its own terrain, Europe’s response to Russia’s hybrid warfare will lack conviction and consistency. As Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, said at a security conference in Riga last month: “Why do we call it hybrid? Because basically when you call it hybrid you don’t need to do anything about it. If you call it terrorism, then it implies reaction.”
If the plane crash in Vilnius today was indeed a case of Russian terrorism, what would Britain’s, and Europe’s, response be?
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