Don’t write off Trump yet: a close battle in Florida could yet swing the 2020 election

On the eve of the 2016 US presidential election,  FiveThirtyEight, the polling arm of ABC News, estimated Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning at 71.4% and Donald Trump’s at 28.6%. The poll was based on an aggregation of available polling data across the country. On the morning after, with President-elect Trump on his way to the White House and Clinton skulking in disbelief, the old one-liner, “egg on face all round,” didn’t quite cover it.

Raw polling data shows that Joe Biden is in a marginally stronger position then Hillary Clinton as this race for the White House draws, thankfully, to its unedifying, insult-spattered close. Hands-up anyone who has spotted a policy out there over the last three months ? Me neither.

Boy, does the Trump campaign, running short of cash, need a last gasp headliner issue. The Hillary email godsend turned the 2016 campaign in the final days. This time round the October 22 debate delivered the 2020 equivalent. The Hunter Biden corruption ploy, which made some noise in the pro Trump media, but changed few minds, was meant to be “it”, but it was no box office. It never took off. Enter, Covid.

Phoenix Coronavirus has arisen from the confusing ashes of the first slugfest debate, featured front stage in the second clash, and could well be the defining issue that Trump needs to edge past Biden in the few days remaining of the campaign.

“Seemples”, as your favourite Meerkat might say. Biden wants to shut the economy down until Coronavirus is no longer a threat. Trump told America, “you need to live with it”, or the economy, jobs and countless lives will be wrecked. In a debate where the paradox of muted microphones meant both candidates could be heard, that gulf emerged loud and clear.

This is hardly surprising. It is a debate that is raging in Britain, too, in similar terms. Bluntly, almost everywhere in the world a young, economically active generation, at low risk from Covid, is being asked by policy wonks to sacrifice its long-term future to benefit an at-risk elderly population. All of the battles over statistics and strategies essentially boil down to this challenging policy choice – should we prioritise the livelihoods of the young and the healthy? Or should we place a greater emphasis on mitigating risks to the lives of the elderly and the vulnerable?

As usual, Trump’s argument that the Covid problem has been cracked is cloud cuckoo land exaggeration. But his over-the-top bombast is erected on the sure foundations of emerging data. Medics are getting a handle on this virus. A recent Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (Icnarc), report found the chance of surviving Covid for at least 28 days has risen from 61 per cent to 72 per cent since the first wave.

That’s across all age groups. The news is even better for the under-70s. For those aged between 50 and 69, the risk of death in intensive care has almost halved, dropping from 38 per cent to just over 20 per cent.

For the under-50s, the mortality risk has fallen from around 18 per cent to below 10 per cent. Drugs, such as the steroid dexamethasone, are responsible, according to Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia, for 50% of the reduced death rate.

Waiting for a vaccine to eliminate risk, Biden’s view, is a bit like Samuel Beckett’s “Waiting for Godot”. Stand under that tree day after day, but an 100% effective vaccine will never turn up. Best estimates suggest that vaccines will be 60% effective and may only mitigate symptoms. On the current evidence, it looks likely that Covid will become endemic, like its close relative the common flu. No magic bullets. So, “live with it” is a simple message that rings true.

“Why are we unemployed, self-isolating under this blasted tree”? “We’re waiting for a vaccine”. “But it didn’t turn up yesterday”. “Maybe it’ll turn up tomorrow”. “Right then, what will we do when the vaccine comes”. “Who knows? We’re just waiting for the vaccine”. “So we are. I forgot”. Beckett has come back to haunt us as a Chief Medical Officer.

Is Joe Biden’s lead – currently 7.9% according to RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker – strong enough to guarantee victory? It has slipped from the 16% peak after the World Wrestling Federation staged the first presidential debate on 30 September. Biden handily won that bout by two bumbles and a “Why don’t you shut up”.

Since then, the ostentatiously Masked Wonder in the basement has made little headway against the Covid Comeback Kid. The polls are tightening. Crucially, in swing state battlegrounds, Florida and Pennsylvania, the Biden lead stands at 2.9% and 5.8%, spookily the same margins FiveThirtyEight was predicting for Hillary.

In his recent, riveting, Reaction web event Professor Niall Ferguson hit on why the polls got it wrong on Hillary and why they could maybe, perhaps (we’d better cover our backs lads), be wrong again. Apparently, 12% of Republicans refuse to respond to pollsters, in case social media get wind of the fact and ruthless algorithms on unknowable servers throw unwanted advertising their way.

Respond to a pollster, “I’m a Republican” and pop-up ads from your local Proud Boys chapter will bounce up on every subsequent Google search, asking you to “stand back and stand by”. Best to Shaddap You Face.

Aside: This is a subtle variant on the reaction to bad news I recall seasoned Tory campaign canvassers resorting to when faced with unequivocal polling data that their candidate – usually me – was imminent toast. “That’s not what we’re hearing on the doorstep”. Hmmm! As a response it was slyly Delphic, leaving open the possibility that they were hearing something worse.

The easy consensus is that Biden is an obvious shoe-in. The press would say that, wouldn’t they? Trump has a point when he harps on about fake news. Much of the US media runs its campaign “news” coverage along predictable, rigid partisan lines that make the rituals of a Roman Catholic Tridentine Mass look positively casual. They are at it again. Flashback to four years ago, the Washington Post headlined, on no evidence at all: “Donald Trump is in a funk: bitter, hoarse and pondering, ‘If I lose…’”.

In their dusty old press election playbook, we have reached that chapter again: “Trump seeds the ground for possible loss with personal attacks”. So, personal attacks were never his thing until now? Come off it! On cue, roll out the old, undermining, self-doubt ploy. The left-leaning media risks repeating the mistake of self-delusion, believing what it wishes to be true. That narrowing Biden lead is a worry for the woke. It is far from an insuperable obstacle.

Put your money on the table time. Who’s going to win? On the night, watch Florida. It’s a key swing state with 29 electoral college votes. Biden is ahead, but only by 2.9%. If Trump can pin his opponent into a “shut down the economy” corner between now and election day, that, and the Republican’s silent 12%, will show that lead to be illusory – and Donald Trump will win another term in the White House.