French premier Philippe replaced in major Macron reshuffle

Edouard Philippe has resigned as prime minister of France ahead of a long-anticipated government reshuffle. It’s a precedent for prime ministers to issue their resignation to the President before reshuffles, and they are sometimes reappointed a few hours later. The sight of removal vans outside the Hotel de Matignon, however, confirmed that Philippe was departing for good.

The former prime minister’s popularity soared during the lockdown period. His regular televised updates to the nation, providing sober analysis and pragmatic instructions, brought reassurance to a country fatigued by President Macron’s attempts to be a modern day General de Gaulle. In turn, Philippe’s approval rating rose to above 40%, while Macron bumped along in the mid-30s.

This awkward dynamic played out in Sunday’s local elections, where Macron’s party, Le République En Marche, performed disastrously at the hands of Green party candidates who gained mayoralties in a string of cities including Strasbourg, Lyon, Bordeaux, Poitiers, Besancon, and Tours. Conversely, Philippe comfortably resisted his challengers and won re-election to his Le Havre mayoral seat with a resounding victory of 58.8% of the vote – double mandates are tolerated in French politics.

It is little surprise, then, that Macron has grown uncomfortable around Philippe, who he considers to be a potential challenger in the 2022 presidential elections. The President is said to be very cognisant of the fact that his own prime minister is not a member of Le Republique En Marche, and was until recently a member of Les Republicains, the party of his former rival Francois Fillon. There have also been leaks to papers about disagreements between the two men over the handling of the coronavirus lockdown.

But Philippe’s partisan history did in some ways help Macron. It gave the President credibility amongst his prime minister’s centre-right supporters, and made his recent shift rightwards on economics and cultural issues an easier task. Philippe had also been an effective lightning rod in the days of the gilet jaunes protests, with his government taking much of the blame for unpopular carbon tax policies.

It is unclear what Philippe plans to do next with his political career, but the present crisis has given him a new, popular national profile; his has been a rise akin to that of Rishi Sunak in Britain. He does have the mayoralty of Le Havre to focus on in the immediate term. But as Macron confronts a major economic crisis and faces continued doubts over his political judgment, Philippe should be in good stead to contend for the top job come 2022. Perhaps he will seek the nomination of his former party, Les Republicains.

In what will likely be the final reshuffle of Macron’s first presidential term, the President has chosen Jean Castex to lead a new government as prime minister.

Castex, 55, is also a conservative, but as a little known national figure he does not have the profile to become a future challenger. A low-key technocrat, he had already been in charge of navigating France out of lockdown, and has received praise for orchestrating an orderly timeline. Macron will be hoping he can also chart a route out of the country’s acute economic crisis in time for April 2022.