Fumio Kishida: meet Japan’s new boy
Can you name any of the post Second World War Japanese Prime Ministers? Congratulations if you said Abe Shinzo (the most recent well-known PM). Shame on you if managed any others because you probably Googled it. Apologies to any aficionados of Japanese politics. Other search engines are available.
If we think of a range of other countries leaders over the past few decades – names come easily: Mitterrand, Kohl, Berlusconi, Nehru, Zuma, Brezhnev, Carter, Jintao etc, but Japan? Miyazawa? Hatoyama? No, me neither. This is probably because Japanese leaders often do not seek the limelight on the international stage, even if their position makes them a heavyweight in global affairs. Japan has the world’s third largest economy, is a member of the G7, has a population of 126 million, and possesses a formidable military which is allied with the United States. Now though, as we increasingly focus on the Asia-Pacific region we may become more accustomed to their names and faces.
The new name in town is Fumio Kishida. This week the ruling LDP party anointed him successor to the lacklustre Yoshihide Suga, and on Monday he should be formally sworn in as the 100th Prime Minister of Japan. If he lasts more than a couple of years in office we should get used to seeing him around.
Kishida was born in Tokyo in 1957, the son and grandson of politicians. He spent several years as a child in New York, studied law back in Japan, and then went into banking before entering parliament in 1993. He rose through the ranks to become Japan’s longest serving foreign minister in Abe’s government 2012-17. He represented Hiroshima in parliament and played a key role in the visit of President Obama to the city’s Peace Memorial Park in 2016 – the first such visit by an American president.
He takes office with an overflowing intray. The coronavirus stats are expected to tick up, the economy is at best ticking over, and there’s some ticklish decisions to make on the direction of foreign policy. Oh, and there’s a general election to be held by late November.
Kishida is a charisma-free zone – which is why he got the top job. The LDP wanted a consensus builder and a pragmatic safe pair of hands to ‘course correct’ the party back to the centre right after the Abe and Suga years when it drifted steadily right. His main rival within the party, the headstrong Taro Kono, is much more popular with the electorate but much less popular with the elite.
It was noticeable during the televised leadership election debates that the four candidates (including Kono) majored on foreign relations. This was in a stark contrast to the debates in the recent German election where nothing outside German’s border was mentioned. Germany may be currently examining its navel, but Japan is examining its navy and the world about it.
A foreign policy priority for Kishida is to maintain stable relations with Japan’s biggest trading partner – China. However, this comes up against his view that China is becoming dangerously assertive, and that Japan must continue to work closely with the USA and “like minded democracies” to contain the Peoples Republic and keep the international sea lanes open – especially those around Taiwan. He’s also said he will appoint a special advisor on human rights who will deal with the alleged human rights abuses of the Uyghur Muslims in China’s Xinjiang region. Kishida says that Japan is “on the front line in the international confrontation of values”.
Hence, he supports increasing the defence budget to develop long range missiles, and possibly nuclear-powered submarines, to keep the Chinese navy at bay, and a beefing up of the loose Quad security grouping of Japan, Australia, the USA and India to maintain a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. Kishida backs Taiwan’s application to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade group a position which reflects a growing trend in Japan to support the island. Japan gets most of its energy needs from the Middle East via the Straits of Malacca. From there, the quickest route to Japan is past Taiwan. Tokyo does not want this giant unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Pacific to be controlled by Beijing.
There are other pressing issues such as the dispute over who owns the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, North Korea’s missile programme, relations with South Korea, and territorial issues with Russia. On the latter Kishada has an ‘in’. Unlike Sugo and Abe, Kishada is partial to a drink. It is said he once challenged that legendary imbiber, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, to a drinking contest of vodka and sake.
Now there’s something to remember him by.