General Armageddon: Will Russia’s ruthless new commander stop the rot?

Meet “General Armageddon”, also known as “Hero of the Russian Federation”, or, depending on your view – “Butcher of Syria“.

General Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin has been appointed commander of all Russian forces involved in the invasion of Ukraine. Job description – ‘Stop the rot. Get on the front foot. Do whatever it takes’. The last point is why, after months of humiliating military defeats, and with political dissent beginning to appear in public, President Putin gave the order – send for Surovikin.

He has a reputation for absolute ruthlessness in warfare, combined with extreme brutality, and for delivering results. When Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February, they advanced on three fronts each of which had a different commander. There was no discernible co-ordination between them and troops on all three fronts were hampered by levels of logistical incompetence which stunned military observers. In April, a single commander was appointed, then relieved of his post in June after further setbacks in the Donbass region. Command was then split between Army Groups Centre and Army Group South, the latter led Surovikin. The rapid advance of Ukraine troops in the past month persuaded the time had come for Surovikin to take overall charge and “do whatever it takes”.

Four days later, Russia fired 83 long range missiles into Ukraine, dozens of which hit infrastructure targets, but also civilian areas including in the centre of Kyiv. It was the first missile attack on the capital for 4 months. Nothing will be off the table for Surovikin. Civilian deaths, destruction of non-military targets, shooting his own troops – all are in his playbook.

56-year-old Surovikin comes from Novosibirsk in Siberia where he was raised in the Russian Orthodox tradition. He is married with two children. In 1987, he graduated from the Omsk Higher Combined-Arms Command School. This training, and his subsequent military career, are why, when added to his no hold barred approach, he has been promoted.

Combined arms warfare is the simultaneous, synchronised, and unified use of infantry, tanks, engineers, long range artillery, tanks, and air power. They combine to achieve large scale movement, with the different moving parts all coordinated to achieve one aim. Often this will be used to hit the enemy in more than one area to undermine its cohesion. It’s complicated and requires a deep understanding of the opponents’ capabilities and intentions. Surovikin has experience.

He fought in Afghanistan in a Spetsnaz (special forces) unit before going on to serve in Tajikistan during the civil war in the 1990s. He commanded a motor rifle battalion before rising to become chief of staff of the 201^st Motor Rifle Division. From there it was on to Chechnya in the 2000s where he is remembered for promising to “destroy three Chechen fighters for every Russian soldier killed”. Also destroyed was Grozny – the Chechen capital. His steady rise through the ranks could have been halted on two occasions. In the first he was accused by a Lieutenant Colonel of beating him up for voting for the wrong candidate for a post. Then a deputy commander for armaments shot himself in the presence of Surovikin. In both cases, it was found that there was no evidence of guilt.     

Following further promotions, he served as commander of Russia’s Eastern Military District where he worked on upgrading the military in the Arctic. And then – to Syria as commander of the air force.

Under his leadership, Russian troops were the most significant factor in regaining most of the territory President Assad’s forces had lost to the Syrian opposition. Wave after wave of government air strikes, assisted by Russia, levelled large parts of the country’s second city Aleppo, killing hundreds of civilians. He is also accused of overseeing chemical attacks. During his tour of duty, Surovikin forged links with the Iran’s Quds Force, an elite section of the Revolutionary Guards, who were also fighting on the government’s side. Those contacts formed part of what has now emerged as a strategic relationship between Russia and Iran. He also liaised with the private mercenary Wagner Group made up of Russian fighters deployed to Syria. His “Hero” award, Russia’s highest, is for his time in the Middle East.

It is no surprise that his latest appointment has been welcomed by the Wagner Group’s owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a St Petersburg businessman with links to the Kremlin. Prigozhin described Surovikin as a “legendary person” and said, “He’s the most competent commander in the Russian army”.  The Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, no stranger to extreme brutality himself, has also praised the move. Kadyrov, who has sent Chechen troops to the front, has long complained that the Russian army is showing weakness in Ukraine. What he wants is a Chechen style war. Surovikin may deliver.

Some military commentators say one day he may replace General Valery Gerasimov as Chief of the General Staff. That may depend on how well he does in turning around Russia’s military fortunes. It also depends on Putin’s future.

He faces a huge task. High tech western weapons continue to pour into Ukraine whose forces are proving themselves adept at quickly learning how to use them to good effect. Russia is using up its stocks of long-range missiles and will struggle to replace them and the Ukrainians are now shooting more down than in the first few months of the war. More air defence weapons are on the way including a state-of-the-art German system.

The next few weeks are crucial. Surovikin will probably try and establish strong defensive lines that will hold through the coming winter. He can then rotate in those reservists who can be rounded up and sent to the front, and, given his record, they will be told that surrender is not an option. His problem? The Ukrainian nation has already voluntarily decided that it is not an option for their country.

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