Germany unleashes Leopards and it could prove decisive
It’s nearly a year since Olaf Scholz promised to tip German defence policy on its head.
In his zeitenwende (new era) speech just days after Vladimir Putin launched his all-out assault on Ukraine, the Chancellor signalled an end to 70 years of German anti-militarism.
It hasn’t been quite that simple.
After 11 months of war, while Germany is the fourth largest donor of military aid to Ukraine ($5.8bn and counting), Scholz has consistently dithered and delayed in delivering weapons and equipment to the frontline.
Sending much-needed tanks – specifically the German-made Leopard-2s – seemed a bridge too far. As Gabriel Gavin writes in his latest column, around 80% of modern heavy tanks in Europe are German-made, and countries (like Poland) wanting to ship them to Ukraine need the nod from Berlin to do so. For months Scholz stubbornly refused.
Yet after days of contradicting statements about whether Germany would send its own tanks, or allow other countries to send theirs, Scholz appears to have caved in.
In the face of fierce criticism from his NATO partners, Scholz signalled that Germany would send 14 of its own Leopard 2s to Ukraine after the US said it was prepared to send 30 M1 Abrams main battle tanks.
It’s not clear what swung it in the end, but British leadership on tanks appears to have started a chain-reaction, after Downing Street announced 10 days ago that it would send 14 of the next generation Challenger 2 tanks to the frontline.
The German decision paves the way for a “tank coalition” across Europe which could provide up to 90 advanced models. Norway is gearing up to send 8 Leopard-2s, and the Netherlands is considering sending 18 more. Poland has already asked for Berlin’s approval to send 14 of its own.
It’s a watershed moment, one that could prove decisive in Ukraine’s fight for survival. Russia already occupies one sixth of Ukraine’s territory – including Crimea, the peninsula it annexed in 2014 – and the Kremlin’s forces are regrouping for a new offensive in the spring.
The thinking among Ukraine’s Western allies is that Kyiv needs a game-changing strategy to force Russia back. Volodymyr Zelensky says 300 top-tier tanks would help do the job.
Both sides need a quick breakthrough on the battlefield, though for different reasons. Russia is in danger of running out of ammunition this year, according to the US, and its economy is creaking under the strain of war and sanctions. Ukraine, meanwhile, is being bankrolled militarily by its Western allies against the Russian behemoth. Sooner or later, this will end, and Kyiv needs to recapture as much territory as possible before it does.
The delivery of main battle tanks will help tip the scales. But while Scholz has finally relented on tanks, the reasons driving the reluctance haven’t gone away. Anti-militarism is firmly ingrained in German political thinking. More subtly, many voters and politicians also feel a deep affinity with Russia, even if they believe Putin’s war to be deplorable. Millions of older Germans were born in East Germany and so grew up in the Soviet Union. Some also learned Russian, including Angela Merkel, the former chancellor whose disastrous attempt to manage Putin has left us where we are today.
As Tim Marshall writes in his latest column, Germany’s historic guilt has a sell-by date, particularly as the tanks would be used against a similar terror to the Wehrmacht in the shape of Putin’s forces.
Scholz appears to have overcome his misgivings for now. His zeitenwende speech was a historic turning point on paper. The tank decision feels like the real thing.