Hard not to feel a little pity as doomed May tries for the 400th time

“I knew delivering Brexit was not going to be simple or straightforward…it has proven even harder than I anticipated.”

Theresa May opened her latest speech today with a major understatement that summarised her doomed premiership. According to May, MPs have “one last chance” to get Brexit over the line by supporting her “new deal”.  It was ominous that before she even finished her speech, Tory MP Simon Clarke declared he would not vote for it.

Within minutes, leading Brexiteers were condemning the deal. Iain Duncan-Smith said, “there’s nothing new or bold about this bad buffet of non-Brexit options.” Similarly, Anne-Marie Trevelyan said, “there’s nothing new or bold about this deal.” While Charlie Elphicke didn’t mince his words: “This is even more of a dog’s breakfast than the last deal.”

The declarations against the deal are coming thick and fast. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Zac Goldsmith and the DUP have all spoken out. It doesn’t stand a chance of passing.

The poor hapless PM came across like a hostage reading out the demands of her captors. Her deal tries to offer something to everyone, which is probably why even fewer people will now support it. It contains some major concessions to Labour, but it’s difficult to believe that Corbyn and Co will want to bail out a Tory PM who is so close to the end.

The “new deal” puts the government under “legal obligation” to try and complete preparations for alternative arrangements for the Irish border by December 2020 to avoid the backstop coming into force. This is an attempt to throw red meat to the hard Brexiteers, but it’s transparently meaningless. An obligation to try doesn’t really hold the government to anything and nobody credible really believes that alternative arrangements can be ready for 2020.

There was a concession to Labour on workers rights and the environment. The government will introduce legislation to lock protections for workers’ rights and environmental protections into law after Brexit. This is a carrot for Labour MPs that they are likely to throw back in her face.

On the role of parliament, the government will adopt Gareth Snell and Lisa Nandy’s amendment ensuring parliament controls future trade negotiations. Another concession to Labour that will irritate hard Brexiteers.

On customs, May says parliament will decide whether the UK should adopt a permanent or temporary customs union with the EU. The numbers in parliament favour a Customs Union. Another dagger to the heart of hard Brexit.

On trade, May said the government will seek as frictionless trade as possible while leaving the Single Market and ending free movement.

With this “new deal”, Theresa May has confirmed what was already apparent – her only genuine red line is ending the free movement of people. Everything else, the economy, trade, exports of services, regulatory autonomy, is secondary.

The real bombshell of the speech was the announcement that parliament must vote on whether to hold second referendum if they pass her bill.  A major win for Remainers and the People’s Vote campaign sure to infuriate her party. Unfortunately for May, this isn’t going to save her deal. People’s Vote spokesperson Margaret Beckett has come out against the deal already:

“Today she tried to spice up the same old deal with a series of supposedly new concessions, but then admitted she had no way of guaranteeing that she could deliver any of them”

May is desperately hoping that she has offered enough that MPs back her deal in the first vote on the legislation to enact it in a Commons vote next month. It seems more likely that her “new deal” will be defeated by more votes than last time, quite a feat, but one typical of the worst Prime Minister in living memory.

Another day, another Theresa May speech that has gone down badly. If the “new deal” fails to win enough support, the PM faces yet more humiliation and having to resign within weeks without having delivered Brexit or, indeed, achieving anything much at all. It’s hard not to feel a tiny bit of pity.

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