Hero Marcus Rashford has run rings around a useless No. 10 defence

A core part of the mythology of Dominic Cummings is the notion that he understands the punters. He has a connection that means he comprehends what ordinary voters are thinking about culture, country, kith and kin – or so runs the theory. Paired with bubbly Boris in better times, it was a potent brew.

“You need to get out of London,” Cummings used to say contemptuously to political hacks and pundits he believed were too metropolitan and middle class, quite a cheek when said to those of us who went to state schools and who do hail from outside London. Unfortunately, Cummings then followed his own advice – get out of London – at the peak of the Covid-19 crisis, driving up the A1 to hide out and to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight.

Since then he has been battling back to assert himself at the heart of government, to ensure Boris doesn’t go wobbly on Brexit and that the Tory leader delivers for the punters Cummings believes have been let down by Labour and a Conservative party he, as a restless radical, despises.

The power of Cummings grew out of his extraordinary success in the 2016 referendum when he devised a winning strategy. His insurgent approach also worked last year, to drive a Remain parliament round the twist, although he had very little to do with the campaign in the general election he helped secure.

Since that election Cummings has developed enormous power, dimmed only when both men were ill, by controlling access to a Prime Minister who has become dependent on his advisor.

The overall outcome is – how can I put this politely? – suboptimal. Watching the way February (here comes Covid-19) was taken up with daft fights over “weirdo” advisors and firing the Chancellor because he wasn’t Dom-compliant, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Cummings fell for his own myth and it did not lead to more effective government.

All of it, though, in narrowly political terms, surely only makes sense for the Tories if – if – the Cummings approach yields results and their man, Boris, stays connected to the punters and able to discern what matters and what will connect.

The Marcus Rashford affair demonstrates that the Boris and Cummings duo are very far from in tune or even alert. The footballer – eloquent, humble, practical, the best of this country – wrote to MPs at the weekend asking them to press the government to continue to provide free school meals for the poorest pupils over the summer holidays. It is an exceptional demand, but then this is an exceptional year.

The government should have seen this penalty coming a mile away. Labour has been pressing. Beyond the opposition there is deep disquiet, fury even, about the impact of the crisis on schools in general and on the poorest pupils particularly.

Rashford tapped into all that very cleverly and very simply. The heartfelt clips on the evening news last night were powerful pieces of political communication.

The government held out, bafflingly, for 48 hours, before changing policy today. Rashford won. And Boris lost 5-0, but not before he had been subjected to a complete kicking by just about everyone, including Tony Blair, leading Tories, football luminaries, football fans and large numbers of irate voters on social media.

Weirdly, Boris claimed to have only heard about this today. How is that possible? He must have noticed it? Someone must have flagged – in between meetings on overseas aid – the mounting public anger fuelled by lockdown weariness and repurposed perfectly to noble ends by Rashford.

One cannot exclude the possibility – look out for the briefings tomorrow – that “friends of Dom” saw him push Boris towards the Rashford position and “useless officialdom” was slow. If that happened, then one can add the sobriquet “ineffective” to the charge sheet against this Number 10’s political operation. What is the point of a ruthless band of brothers approach, machine-gunning the cabinet and pretty much everyone, if when it matters it is not even effective?

If Johnson and Cummings could not see a widely-loved English football star coming at them, the ball at his feet, the country cheering him on to the goal, then they really cannot have much of a feel for the preoccupations of their voters beyond Brexit.

All of it will only prompt more Tory MPs and voters to ask of Number 10: What on earth is going on in there? What are they playing at?