How drone warfare is intensifying in Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine has launched a spate of attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia for the second consecutive day, as both sides ramp up drone warfare.

Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is targetting energy infrastructure across Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, “to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel”. 

These attacks are not just along the border. Today, it hit some of the country’s largest oil refineries in Russia’s heartlands such as Ryazan, Kstovo and Kirishi — all hundreds of kilometres away from the Ukrainian border.

Yesterday, a spate of drone strikes caused a fire at the NORSI refinery in southern Russia, with resulting damage halting at least half of the refinery’s production. 

Analysts say Kyiv’s strikes inside Russia may be partially intended to hammer home the impact of the war to Russians as they prepare for Friday’s presidential election. Not that anyone realistically expects it to make a difference to the outcome: the sham election is certain to secure Putin his fifth term in office, extending his iron grip on the country until at least 2030. 

Drones serve manifold purposes in warfare. This increasingly vital piece of military technology is used for surveillance to locate energy troops and for precision purposes to guide artillery fire towards the enemy. They are also used to launch direct attacks: as Baran Ayguven wrote recently in Reaction, military powers are now heavily employing kamikaze drones, which are more like missiles in that they are fitted with a small bomb that self-destructs during delivery, hence their other name: “suicide drones”. 

Additionally, drones serve an important humanitarian role in conflict: Ukrainians have been using drones, fitted with high-resolution cameras, to document Russian war crimes. 

Many of Kyiv’s drones are Turkish-made and a considerable portion have also been supplied by Washington. Though Ukrainians are making big efforts to ramp up their own production: a year ago, Kyiv had seven domestic drone manufacturers. Now, it has at least 80. 

Crucially, drones have allowed Ukraine, and its vastly outnumbered army, to preserve troops. Before this technology became a part of the military arsenal, armies would have to send out special force units on risky operations if they wanted to seek out enemy positions. Now, the multipurpose drone can serve this function. 

Less fortunately for Kyiv, any military advantage provided by the drone is certainly not wasted on Moscow. 

Russia has heavily employed drones since the early days of its full-scale invasion, often to target civilian infrastructure and deprive Ukrainians of electricity and heating.

Western sanctions on Russian supply chains have prevented Moscow from excelling in drone production. But it nonetheless boasts an extensive fleet of sophisticated Shahed-136 drones thanks to Tehran. These Iranian-made drones can carry 100 pounds of explosives over a range of 1,200 miles. 

Earlier today, Russia’s Ministry of Defence released a video of a cluster munition strike it had launched on Ukrainian helicopters near the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine, which destroyed at least two helicopters. Military analysts have expressed concerns that the footage suggests Moscow’s ability for speedy targeting and precision, powered by drone surveillance, is clearly improving.

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