HS2 shambles: why it was always the wrong route and plan

As speculation intensifies that Rishi Sunak is preparing to scrap the government’s flagship levelling up project, the PM finds himself in an unenviable position: damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

Sunak refused once again today to commit to the northern leg of HS2. In doing so, he has failed to dispel rumours that a high speed rail line, once envisioned as a new way to link London with Leeds and Manchester, with dreams of one day reaching Scotland, will soon be reduced to – in the words of Tory grandees George Osborne and Michael Heseltine – “little more than a shuttle service from Birmingham to a London suburb.”

The two former Conservative MPs have launched a joint blistering attack on Sunak, warning him that such a scaled back HS2 would “become an international symbol of our decline”.

“How could you ever again claim to be levelling up when you cancel the biggest levelling-up project in the country?” they asked. 

Similarly, Allan Cook, the chairman of HS2 until 2021, declared that cutting the line would be “a betrayal of the north and our growth ambition as a country.” 

Yet the PM must do something. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt admitted last week that the cost of the project is getting “totally out of control”.

In 2015, the entire project was budgeted to cost £55.7bn. The last official estimate on HS2 costs, which excluded the already cancelled eastern section, came to about £71bn – and this 2019 figure doesn’t account for the soaring cost of materials and wages since then. Neil Collins wrote in Reaction last week that £100 billion is probably a more realistic cost. 

Collins advocates scrapping the project altogether. Others would argue that it’s too late for that: in June, a statement to Parliament said that £22.5bn had been spent on the London to Birmingham leg so far while £2.3bn had been spent on measures to prepare other sections, such as buying up land.

Many are expressing frustration over the entirely predictable nature of the financial train wreck that is HS2. 

As friends of the late Mark Bostock, a former Arup consultant who successfully led the construction of HS1 from St Pancras to the Channel Tunnel, are pointing out: he has been vindicated. 

George Trefgarne says Bostock warned correctly that the target speed of 400kph was far too fast on such a small island and that 300kph would suffice. As Trefgarne points out: “HS2’s high design speed (since reduced) necessitates an arrow-straight route through the widest part of the Chilterns, excessive tunnelling and such high design-specification that the costs have escalated dramatically. The energy demands at such high speeds are also astronomical.”

Initially, both Labour and the Tories adopted Bostock’s thinking but, around the time Lord Adonis was Transport Minister, an inexplicable U-turn saw the rationale for HS2 become all about speed. 

Clearly, there are lessons to be learned. But how now to deal with this mess? 

Notably, Labour has refused to confirm it would fund the HS2 line to Manchester if the Conservatives axe it.

And despite the fierce rebuke from former chairman Cook, even Anthony Gueterbock, deputy chair of a 2019 review of HS2, has said that the Manchester leg of HS2 should be axed and the resulting savings channeled into other transport projects in the North.

The timing is less than ideal for Sunak. Scrapping the line to Manchester only days before the Conservative conference begins in – you guessed it – Manchester, isn’t the best of looks.

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