Firmer evidence that vaccines are working is starting to trickle in.
ONS data shows that 41 per cent of over 80s had antibodies to the virus in the 28 days up to 1 February, more than any other age group in England. Two weeks ago, it was just 26 per cent. Over 80s in care homes and hospitals weren’t included, meaning the true figure is probably even higher.
The numbers mean that a large chunk of the most vulnerable are now protected against Covid to some extent. Around one in five people in England has some level of immunity from coronavirus, up from one in seven two weeks ago. Ministers have already seen data that vaccination is cutting illness by about two thirds.
The news will be more grist to the mill of lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs. Yet the PM’s new line is that the steps to leave restrictions behind us will be “cautious but irreversible” and that we should all be “optimistic but patient”.
They’re neat little soundbites implying a sort of deal between the PM and the public. But they’re starting to sound more like Covid doublethink; as the numbers improve, so the prospects of an early release from lockdown seem to plummet.
The latest clue that caution is king is the addition of an extra 1.7 million people in England to the ‘shielders’ list. Scientific advisers identified a larger pool of at-risk adults (who will go to the front of the vaccine queue) using the ‘QCovid’ algorithm which takes age, ethnicity and weight into account. It brings the number who have been told to stay indoors until 31 March to almost four million.
Why weren’t these people added sooner? The Department of Health and Social Care has said that a “population risk assessment” needed to be carried out and the QCovid model needed to be independently verified by the ONS. But the tool was published in the British Medical Journal four months ago. Can these checks really have taken that long?
Meanwhile, the vaccine outlook continues to improve. Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccines minister, has said that Britain is poised to receive tens of millions more doses in the next couple of months, essential if all over 50s are going to be jabbed by the end of April. In private, ministers admit that this could well happen by the end of March.
One worry is that from March people will start needing their second vaccine dose, meaning the rate at which new first doses can be given is expected to tail off. Yet France’s health authority is now recommending that anyone previously infected with Covid be given one dose, not two. Some studies suggest the immune response after contracting Covid makes a single dose sufficient to protect against further infection.
Professor Tim Spector, who heads the ZOE Covid Symptom Study, says that data on 300,000 vaccinations from the ZOE app bears this out. Protection is similar in people who have had Covid and one shot compared to those who haven’t had Covid but have been jabbed twice. This could mean five million second doses used as first doses instead. Fingers crossed.
Coup de grâce
Myanmar police have filed a new criminal charge against the deposed leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, which could lead to her indefinite detention.
Suu Kyi has been detained since the country’s 1 February military coup, and her lawyer told local media today that the former leader has been charged under a natural disaster law.
The law has been used to prosecute coronavirus restriction violations, which carry a three-year maximum prison sentence, but could also allow Suu Kyi to be held without trial.
Myanmar’s military launched their coup after claiming Suu Kyi’s landslide election victory last November was fraudulent, a claim dismissed by the electoral commission.
Mass peaceful demonstrations have taken place across the country ever since, despite the junta banning large gatherings, and this weekend security forces opened fire on protestors.
The junta claims it will relinquish power once an election is held, but has not yet proposed a date.
North Korea hack
North Korea has hacked Pfizer to try to steal Covid-19 vaccine technology, according to South Korean intelligence officials. North Korea, under the rule of Kim Jong-un, has long been an aggressive player in cyberspace, using hacking as a military tool and as a way to raise cash. The country is thought to be behind the ransomware computer virus that briefly crippled the NHS in 2017, and is a prime suspect in the theft of $281 million in cryptocurrencies last week.
The economic and geopolitical value of vaccines is sky-high and stealing intellectual property to gain an edge will be tempting for renegade nations. In November last year Microsoft revealed that nine health and pharmaceutical companies had been targeted by hackers tied to Russia and North Korea.
The world is in the dark about how well the hermit kingdom is coping with the pandemic as all NGOs have now left. North Korea is scheduled to receive two million AstraZenaca vaccines in the coming weeks, but it claims not to have recorded a single Covid infection. North Korean media also claimed its football team had beaten Brazil 1-0 in the 2010 World Cup. They lost 2-1.
Mattie Brignal,
News Editor