Imperial study does not mean herd immunity is impossible
A new study by Imperial College London has found that antibodies to coronavirus decline relatively quickly after infection. “Immunity is waning quite rapidly,” according to the Imperial team. “We’re only three months after our first (round of tests) and we’re already showing a 26 per cent decline in antibodies.”
But does this, as some panicked people on social media have claimed, make herd immunity impossible, or a vaccine ineffective? No. Antibodies and immunity are not the same thing – rather, antibodies are one of several forms of immunity. T-cells, which also protect the body from a second infection, are not accounted for in the study.
Indeed, it is a normal part of your immune response to any disease that antibody levels fall after an infection has been resolved. When it comes to seasonal infections caused by coronaviruses other than SARS-CoV-2, we already know that antibodies typically begin to decline around a week after the infection and usually only last for ten to twelve months.
T-cells, on the other hand, are formed only after the infection and are known to provide more reliable immunity in the long run. As the Oxford Covid-19 Evidence Service Team has noted, recent preliminary studies showed that T-cells “were found in patients with mild Covid-19 symptoms who had recovered and that these cells persisted, suggesting the potential for longer-term immunity.”
The Imperial study is therefore less relevant than it may at first appear, stating a relatively obvious point about the nature of antibodies and nothing on the forms of immunity most likely to protect vulnerable populations from coronavirus. The available evidence still suggests that sustainable herd immunity can be achieved.
Happy birthday, Hillary
Yesterday evening, on the birthday of former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, the US Senate confirmed the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.
This is a big deal. America now has the most conservative Supreme Court in 70 years. Trump’s three appointments – Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett – will likely to assert themselves on sensitive cultural issues, such as abortion and gun rights.
It is also a younger court. All six conservative justices are under the age of 75 (I said younger, not young), and four of them are under 65. This makes it unlikely that Joe Biden, if he were to win the election on 3 November, could tip the court back in the liberals’ favour. Thus, whatever happens next week, conservatives can rely on the judiciary to rein in the left.
Our very own Joseph Rachman, currently reporting from the Washington, has written at length today about the ramifications of Barrett’s confirmation.
Obama takes the South
The picture couldn’t be more different for conservatives in the presidential race, where Trump still appears to be losing big. In a sign of things to come, the Democrats have sent their big-hitters to Republican heartlands in the South; Joe Biden is currently campaigning in Georgia, while Obama is in Florida.
Deploying these big hitters to traditionally Republican-voting states suggests the Democrats believe they have a real opportunity to win by a landslide.
Alternatively, this could be an attempt to mess with Trump’s head in the final days of the campaign, and may even force the Republicans to divert resources from battlegrounds to safe states. Such chicanery is not unusual in US presidential elections.
Boris in even more trouble
A group of 50 Conservative MPs led by Jake Berry, the former Northern Powerhouse Minister, have formed a bloc called the Northern Research Group to pressure Downing Street over funding and devolution for the North.
In a sternly-written letter to No10, the group expressed concern that “the cost of Covid could be paid for by the downgrading of the levelling-up agenda,” adding: “We believe this would threaten to undermine the government’s hard-won mandate in December.”
Conservative MPs’ confidence in their leader was already draining away at a perilous pace, but this open revolt from northern MPs is in a different league, not least because many of them owe their seats to Johnson’s unique appeal in the 2019 campaign. If they desert the Prime Minister, he’s probably done for.
Another tragedy in the Channel
Four people – two adults and two children – have died in the English Channel after a migrant boat sank off Dunkirk coast. Fifteen others have been taken to hospital.
In a statement, Home Secretary Priti Patel said: “I am truly saddened to learn of the tragic loss of life in French waters this morning. My thoughts and prayers are with their families and loved ones at this time.”
She added: “This tragic news highlights the dangers that come with crossing the Channel and I will do everything I can to stop callous criminals exploiting vulnerable people.”
Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter