India wants to have its cake and eat it on Ukraine – Boris would understand

Prime Minister Johnson has made the Indians an offer they can easily refuse. If they could just condemn Russia and impose sanctions, that would be jolly helpful. You know, because of that unpleasant business in Ukraine. Democracies, standing together and all that.

Democracies do usually stand together, but at a time, and over an event, of their choosing. That time and event will come for India, but it’s not now, and it’s not Ukraine. Why not? Because it doesn’t have to.

Despite American pressure India is unwilling to impose sanctions on Russia which it regards as a reliable trade partner. Since the invasion on 24 February it has bought as much Russian oil as it did in the whole of last year. It’s only about 16 million barrels, and it’s cheap, but it still provides Moscow with an economic lifeline and undermines the sanctions campaign. President Biden has called India’s position “somewhat shaky” but the Americans are reluctant to force the issue. They know that in the long run the mutual Indo-US desire to contain Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific will require a close relationship.

It’s difficult to accuse India of hypocrisy. As Dr. S. Jaishankar, the external affairs minister, put it recently: “I suspect, looking at the figures, probably our total purchases for the month would be less than what Europe does in an afternoon. So you might want to think about that”. Dr Jaishankar, and his boss Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are also thinking of the next time they want Moscow’s help in vetoing a Security Council resolution on the disputed region of Kashmir.

The Americans are concerned about India buying almost 50% of its military equipment from Russia (down from 70% a decade ago). This falls foul of America’s “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” by which a country signing defence deals with North Korea, Iran, or Russia can be sanctioned. But is has not applied this to New Delhi. Russia is supplying its S-400 missile defence system to India which will give it a formidable strategic deterrence against China and Pakistan, neither of which are friends of the US.

Nor has it put any pressure on its close allies the UK and Australia to go in hard. Washington recognises that the British need the commonwealth states to help boost trade post Brexit. It knows that Australia is part of the Quad, a loose naval agreement including India which is aimed at containing Chinese naval power.

That is the longer game for the Americans and the UK. To persuade India that, with Russia joining China in having increasingly close ties with Pakistan, the time is coming to slowly distance itself from Moscow. There are signs this is already happening, and New Delhi will have noticed that on the very day Russia invaded Ukraine, Pakistan’s president, Imran Khan, travelled to Moscow.

If India is to drop Russia it will take years – not this year’s conflict. Many Americans and Europeans may view the Ukrainian struggle as a defining one which they cannot afford to lose, but many Indians see a war from which they can keep their distance. They are far more concerned about potential clashes with China along their long-disputed border and at sea. They fought a short war in the Himalayas in 1962, and in 2020 their troops were involved in clashes which killed 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese. 

New Delhi is also watching nervously as it sees Beijing building a blue water navy which is already bigger than its own. China has two aircraft carriers to India’s one. It has more than 70 submarines, India has 20. It has more destroyers, more corvettes and more navy fighter jets. India has a better strategic position in the Indian ocean, but China is building bases in Djibouti and ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar.

These are the potential conflict zones and military statistics India cares about. These are the places and things about which India will take a side if it comes to choosing. Not Ukraine.

During his visit Boris Johnson was repeatedly asked about India’s position on Ukraine and gave variations of this answer: “As I think everybody understands, India and Russia have historically had a very different relationship, perhaps, than Russia and the UK have had over the last couple of decades. We have to reflect that reality, but clearly, I’ll be talking about it to Narendra Modi”. He went on to say, “And actually, if you look at what the Indians have said, they were very strong in their condemnation of the atrocities in Bucha”. Up to a point, Prime Minister.

India did indeed condemn the killings but managed to do so without mentioning the word Russia. When the UN General Assembly voted to suspend Moscow from the Human Rights Council over the massacre, New Delhi abstained, as it had earlier on a vote condemning the invasion.

India has good relations with Russia, the US, the UK and many other countries currently divided by the Ukraine conflict. Before the UN vote on suspending Russia from the Human Rights Council, Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow all called on New Delhi “to do the right thing”. Abstention was the way not to overly offend any of them. Johnson, a supporter of having your cake and eating it, will understand.