Invading Ukraine is high risk for Russia

Will they, won’t they? They might, he might, but not before looking at the potential profit and loss balance sheet of moving the 100,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian border across, and into war.

On the plus side a successful military invasion of Ukraine increases the buffer zone Russia craves between it and the NATO powers. It probably could link the parts of the Donbass region, already controlled from Moscow, down to the Crimea region annexed in 2014. It could lead to the toppling of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his annoying political reforms which are undermining pro-Russian businessmen in Ukraine.

In the loss ledger are not just the large numbers of dead Russian soldiers – the Ukrainian military is in much better shape than it was 7 years ago. There are also the economic sanctions which will be piled onto those already hurting the Russian economy. What looks like an economic warning shot was fired on Tuesday when the German energy regulator suspended certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on the grounds that it needed to be complaint with German law before approval can be granted. The project is crucial to Moscow’s economic and strategic plans and a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would probably lead to various non-compliance technicalities being found to make the suspension permanent. If Nord Stream 2 is up and running, Europe becomes even more reliant on Moscow for its energy. Risking that is quite a risk for Moscow.

Also, what is the invasion is not a success? Can President Putin be sure other countries would not get involved on the ground? It seems unlikely, but they would surely arm to the teeth what was left of Ukraine. As predicted by Reaction last week, the UK and Ukraine have now finalised a treaty enabling Kiev to receive loans from London to buy British warships and missiles. President Macron of France, not usually known for taking a tough line with Moscow told Putin this week that his country was ready to defend Ukraine’s “independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”  Again, direct military action seems unlikely, but the option was left open. The Americans have also weighed in warning Putin not to make a “mistake”.

Russia does not need to risk that “mistake”. There are other ways and means short of the threshold of war.

If Russia can wait for Nord Stream 2 to be approved, it can then reroute Gazprom’s supplies to Europe around Ukraine instead of through. That would cost Kiev north of $10 billion over five years in lost transit fees putting a faltering economy under greater stress. In recent months, Gazprom has repeatedly failed to book increased capacity delivery to Europe via this route. Moscow can also reduce its supplies of coal and gas to Ukraine to encourage dissatisfaction not just with the government, but with the benefits of having become a country allied to the EU countries. There are plenty of pro-Russian oligarchs in Ukraine happy to fund opposition movements. Putin has already demonstrated the “advantages” of being pro-Moscow by opening Russia’s markets to goods made in the rebel held parts of the Donbass region.

The Russian perspective is worth noting. Having seen NATO arrive on its border it is determined to keep Ukraine out of the EU which it sees as the antechamber for countries seeking to join the military alliance. It engineered the uprising by the Russian speaking Ukrainians in Donbass and successfully built a buffer zone in front of part of its border. Recently it has watched the growing military support for Ukraine such as the UK defence deal and worries that Ukraine might be tempted to launch an assault to regain control of the Donbass. It is particularly concerned about Turkey selling Ukraine Bayraktar drones one of which was used in an airstrike on rebel positions The Bayraktar was used to devastating effect last year by Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia when they wiped out much of Armenia’s heavy armour. 

Putin says fears of a Russian invasion are “alarmist”. However, he knows that 100,000 combat troops including tanks, heavy artillery and ballistic missiles on the border will alarm people. He kept many of them in the region despite saying last spring that the exercises they were engaged in were over.

Putin has clearly decided the time is right to raise the temperature in the frozen conflict in the Donbass. Military action of some sort will not be a surprise, a full-scale Russian invasion would be. Controlled destabilisation is something the former KBG man knows all about. It’s cheaper than war, he is a master of it, and the threat of war is part of his tool kit.