Iran and Israel’s clash over nukes is hotting up

Something’s going to happen somewhere at some time. OK, as forecasts go it’s not exactly Nostradamus, but when it comes to the Iran/Israel story it’s the easiest prediction to make, especially given events so far this year. However, the “known unknown” is harder to predict – will the something lead to all-out war?

The relationship between the two countries has been one of mutual loathing since the 1979 Iranian revolution brought to power a despotic, violent, and antisemitic theocracy in Tehran. It periodically calls for the destruction of Israel and consistently enjoys Jew baiting at the highest levels of society. Israel can live with that – it has its own share of racists, some of them now in government. What it says it can’t live with is a nuclear armed Iran.

The above is the stage upon which their relationship has played out over four decades during which there has been “shadow war” conducted across the world. The Iranian regime has hunted down and murdered Jews, Israeli and non-Israeli alike; the Israelis have gone after Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders in Syria and Lebanon and killed several senior scientists working in Iran’s nuclear industry. All that changes is the background scenery of what is happening diplomatically, and this year it has changed again.

Israel’s appetite for risk appears to have increased. In January a multiple drone attack on an advanced weapons military factory in Isfahan was probably carried out by Israel. Depending on Israeli or Iranian versions of events it either caused “devastating damage” or “damaged a few roof tiles”. Iran responded with a drone attack on a tanker in the Arabian sea owned by an Israeli businessman and Israel claims two more attempts to sink ships have occurred since then.  

Two weeks ago, an Israeli airstrike in a residential neighbourhood in Damascus is thought to have targeted a meeting of Iranian military officials involved in manufacturing drones. Hitting Iranian, or Iranian-backed targets in Syria is not unusual. However, targeting drone specialists is a reminder of a new piece of scenery brought onto the stage. Tehran has sent hundreds of drones to Russia, and these are being used to kill Ukrainian civilians. This has caused both the Americans and Europeans to view Iran as a malignant actor not just in the Middle East but also in Europe.

During the same period there has been a noticeable increase in military and diplomatic coordination between Israel and the US. In late January US and Israeli forces conducted an integrated military exercise named Juniper Oak which simulated long-range air strikes involving more than 140 jet fighters and bombers and included refuelling aircraft, and those involved in search and rescue missions. The potential adversary was obvious. The drone attack on Isfahan came a week later. CIA chief William Burns had been in Jerusalem a few days prior to that.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have also been in Jerusalem this year and Defence Secretary Austin Lloyd is thought to be going late next week. Before that Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer will be in Washington to brief officials there on his government’s belief that Iran has made advances on its alleged project to build nuclear weapons. High level visits are not unusual between the two countries, but the frequency of those this year is.

President Biden came to office saying he wanted to resurrect the multi-nation 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It limited Tehran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67% purity – enough to fuel a nuclear power plant for civilian purposes and in return a significant number of sanctions against Iran were lifted. But amid accusations that Iran was cheating, President Trump withdrew the US from the accord in 2018. Iran said it was no longer bound by the JCPOA and began to enrich to 60% – a level which is not necessary for civilian use.

Last week, diplomats revealed that International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors had discovered traces of uranium in two interconnected cascades of advanced centrifuges enriched to 83.7% purity at the Fordow nuclear site. That level is approaching the 90% threshold for weapons grade material required for a nuclear bomb. Tehran says “unintended fluctuations” caused the rise which is plausible, although spikes of that amount are unusual. The IAEA had previously criticised Iran for making unannounced changes to equipment.

An IAEA report into Iran’s activities is expected to be published late next week. If it results in a censure of Iran then Tehran can be expected to react negatively and may increase its stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. Facing massive dissent at home some senior hawks in the regime may gamble that a confrontation with the “Zionist entity” and various foreign “Little” and “Great” Satans might ease the domestic pressure. Stockpiling 60% material would mean the “breakout” to enriching to 90% and having enough material for nuclear weapons could be reduced to several weeks. However, assuming Iran does not yet have the ability to miniaturise a nuclear armed warhead to allow it to be fitted to a long-range missile, the ability to deliver it could be at least another year.

Either way, the White House has spent this year signalling that President Biden will not allow a nuclear armed Iran. Israel has always said the same, and increasingly the Europeans are taking a harder line than in previous decades. There are limited IAEA oversights in Iran since the JCPOA collapsed, and few diplomatic channels to reduce the temperature of a simmering dispute.

This does not necessarily indicate a war this year, but it creates the atmosphere for more tit for tat actions between Iran and Israel and therefore escalation. Last year Israeli and Turkish intelligence foiled a plot to murder Israeli tourists in Turkey. Iran has suffered numerous killings of officials and scientists in drive-by shootings and bomb attacks in Tehran and other cities. These are the sort of incidents which can lead to responses which then get out of control. We don’t know where, or when, they will happen, only that it will be sometime.

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