Iran Crisis: Biden’s rivals take aim at veteran Democrat frontrunner
The race for the Democratic nomination for the US presidency is about to hot up, and as the party enters primary season the contest has winnowed down to four front-runners – Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren.
Iowa is up first. The state’s caucus is on 3 February. Voters must be both registered voters and party members to take part. Then it is on to New Hampshire for 11 February, Nevada on 22 February and South Carolina on 29 February.
On Super Tuesday on 3 March voters in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia have their say.
At a key point in the race, Trump’s strike on Iran could now have important domestic political consequences. Even as the Democrats united to condemn the strike on Qasem Soleimani as a reckless act that threatened to drag America into another war, and to argue that Obama’s Iran deal should never have been abandoned, the Democratic primary candidates inevitably also tried to turn the moment to their advantage. In what, until now, had been a primary campaign focused on domestic issues, foreign policy has reared its head for the first time.
The current front runner Biden was perhaps in the best position to do so. Polls have shown that Democrat and Democrat leaning voters trust him the most on foreign policy and Biden seems keen to play on this. In a statement attacking Trump’s actions and attempts to blame the situation on Obama’s legacy, Biden not only said the crisis was of Trump’s own making but also associated with himself with the now defunct, but still talismanic, Iran nuclear deal referring to the “Obama-Biden record” on Iran.
But for Biden playing on his record and experience also has the possibility of backfiring. Sanders and Buttigieg, even as they condemned Trump, also questioned whether Biden should be the person to take over US foreign policy given he had supported the Iraq War – something they both condemned as a disaster. Both also touted their own credentials. Sanders cited his longstanding anti-war activism. Buttigieg argued his military service as a naval intelligence officer gave him experience as a military decision maker and an awareness of war’s cost. Warren for her part has less to go on but she joined Sanders in a rally against war with Iran yesterday – and likely shares his views of Biden regarding Iraq.
The issue of Iraq and more generally whether Biden’s government record is an asset or a target goes to the heart of the current tensions in the Democratic Party. While so far the Democratic candidates have tended to pull their punches against each other to maintain unity in the face of Trump, the race has still been characterised by a debate over the nature of the party.
Biden may be leading the field but the young progressive flank of the Democrats is sharply critical of the party’s past and wants a fundamental realignment anathema to Biden’s status as the Obama continuity candidate. Just a few days ago Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, the new radicals’ most vocal standard bearer, openly groaned at the thought of a Biden presidency and said that in any other country they would not be part of the same political party. As the primary elections come closer these conflicts could heat up. While the progressive wing makes up a fairly small percentage of the party proper it has proved adept at focusing media attention on issues of its choice, aided by its noisy online presence.
Biden’s rivals are likely to continue hitting him over the Iraq war and its aftermath. The line of attack is potentially a promising one. Although progressives often don’t acknowledge it, Biden’s centrist record and image is popular with many Democrat voters – Iraq offers a clear part of his record that a chunk of voters will dislike. Buttigieg, who is also running in the centrist lane, might try to use the issue to differentiate himself from Biden.
Just how much this will help define the race is unclear. Foreign policy usually has a limited impact on US elections but factors that can change this include lots of media coverage of the issue and a sharply split political response to it. Coverage of the Iran situation is widespread on US media right now. While the leading Democratic candidates have been fairly uniform in their response to Iran – even if it provided some opportunity to snipe at Biden’s record – in the early primary marginal shifts could make all the difference.
In key early voting states the polls show a tight race. In the earliest voting state, Iowa, Biden leads on average but is followed closely by Sanders and Buttigieg. The state only delivers a few delegates it often sets the tone of the race – the victor in Iowa has gone on to win the Democrat primary since 1992. In New Hampshire, the state that jump started Sanders’ unexpectedly strong challenge to Hillary Clinton in 2016, poll averages show Sanders neck and neck with Biden – Warren a little behind.
Upsets in these two states would leave Biden reliant on rallying in Nevada and South Carolina where he holds more commanding leads. Still it could shake the fairly comfortable lead over the rest of the field that he has so far maintained in the national polls. As they prepare for battle this is the tightest of races.