Iran’s nuclear chief assassinated

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Iran’s top nuclear scientist, who western intelligence agencies believe has been the driving force behind the country’s nuclear weapons programmes for more than twenty years, was assassinated near Tehran today. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, nicknamed the Iranian Robert Oppenheimer, was shot dead as his car drove through the countryside town of Absard, in the Damavand region, according to Iranian state television.

Senior Iranian officials are already pointing fingers at Israel, with Foreign Minister Javad Zarif saying: “This cowardice – with serious indications of an Israeli role – shows the desperate warmongering of perpetrators.”

Israel has previously been associated with attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and espionage operations against Iranian nuclear scientists. In a 2018 presentation about Iran’s nuclear programme, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu singled out Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. “Remember that name, Fakhrizadeh,” Netanyahu told the audience. The Israeli government has not claimed responsibility for his assassination, however.

The death of Fakhrizadeh comes as western governments grow increasingly alarmed by Iran’s rapidly increasing production of enriched uranium. Earlier this month, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had amassed twelve times the amount of enriched uranium permitted under the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The Iran government insisted this was for peaceful purposes, but the IAEA found their explanation to be “not credible”.

Over the last two years, Iran has reneged gradually on its commitments made in the JCPOA – the international treaty, to which the UK is one of the six signatories, designed to stop the country from attaining a nuclear bomb. The country’s pivot away from the deal was in response to America’s withdrawal from the treaty and the Trump administration’s hostility to Tehran.

Now, with the brain behind their nuclear ambitions killed, the Iranian government may be prompted to abandon further commitments and accelerate its nuclear programme, increasing the risk of conflict in the region.

Whomever was responsible, today’s assassination will undoubtedly make life easier for Iran’s key rivals in the region – Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – in the short term. It is a serious blow to Iran’s nuclear expertise and to its national confidence. In the medium to long term, however, it may yield even more Iranian aggression.

One dynamic to watch will be the response from President-elect Biden, who had hoped to reinvigorate the Iran nuclear deal. Today’s events will make one of his team’s key foreign policy commitments much more difficult to achieve.

Government faces significant Tory rebellion over Covid tiers

More than 70 Conservative MPs could vote against the coronavirus tiering system next Tuesday, with backbenchers feeling betrayed by the “irrational” restrictions announced over the last few days. MPs from all wings of the party are wondering why their constituents will face more restrictions from Dec 2 than they did before the national lockdown.

Boris Johnson this morning attempted to ease the tension, saying he expected restrictions to be downgraded in numerous areas in the next review of tiers, expected December 16th, but this failed to see off the brewing rebellion.

Senior Conservative lockdown-sceptics believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if Labour abstains on Tuesday.

Sir Keir Starmer, who is still deciding whether his party will back the tiering system, faces a tough decision. While he’s been entirely supportive of government restrictions to tackle the coronavirus in the past, the prospect of an embarrassing defeat for Downing Street over a major piece of legislation must be tantalising.

This comes as government analysis today showed that the national Covid reproduction rate has fallen below 1 for the first time since August. Given the lag in data, this suggests the virus’ prevalence in the UK has been shrinking for quite a while.

Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: “It is worth noting that the falls in R began in the second half of September.” He added that the reproduction rate will likely “decrease further as the full impact of lockdown becomes apparent.”

Things are going in the right direction, despite the messy politics.

Have a good weekend.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter

Head Image:  A file photo dated 23 January 2019 shows Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during a meeting. A leading Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, has been assassinated by unidentified gunmen on the outskirts of the capital Tehran on Friday, the countrys foreign minister said. (Photo by Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images).