Irish border breakthrough not quite what it says on the tin

If you checked Twitter first thing this morning, you may have detected a heady atmosphere – even euphoria – among some Brexiteers. They’d woken up to the news, splashed on The Times’ front page and then picked up by other media, that the EU has at last seen some sense on the Irish border.

“In a concession to British concerns,” it was reported, “negotiators want to use technological solutions to minimise border checks between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.”

Great. The European Commission has decided unilaterally to revive the Tory Leavers’ ‘Max Fac’ solution of a hi-tech, unobtrusive frontier in Ireland and ditch the constitutionally explosive notion of an internal UK border in the Irish Sea. The diplomats in Brussels can take a few weeks off to munch waffles and quaff Trappist ales, before the happy news of a deal is announced following the Tory party conference.

After months of grinding pessimism around the Brexit talks, it’s a seductive vision, but it’s not supported by the detail in the newspaper’s report. This “breakthrough” is not quite what the diehard Brexiteers say is on the tin.

The Times’ article is based on confidential diplomatic notes from a meeting of EU ambassadors, where details of a “revised draft of the Northern Ireland protocol” were discussed. For some time, Brussels’ chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has been talking about “de-dramatising” the European Commission’s “backstop” plan for Northern Ireland to remain effectively in the single market and customs union, even while the rest of the UK leaves.

At the meeting, it is reported that Sabine Weyand, Mr Barnier’s deputy, told ambassadors, “controls or checks only have to be organised in a way that would not endanger the EU single market… for the main part, these controls would not have to happen at the border.” This is a point that has previously been made by the British government and by Brexiteers, most recently in the ERG’s paper on Ireland.

The problem is that although the EU now seems to accept that technology can be used to create a seamless border, it still wants that border to separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom. The document reportedly says, “controls could happen at the companies involved at either end of the transaction and they would just scan a label on board ships en route from Britain to Northern Ireland or the Irish republic.”

In other words, it looks like the EU still envisages checks, no matter how unobtrusive, taking place between Great Britain and the island of Ireland, rather than between Northern Ireland and the Republic. So this is part of Mr Barnier’s plot to “de-dramatise” an Irish Sea border, rather than a new proposal for a free-flowing land border. It may involve completing paperwork far away from any frontier, but it would still affect goods moving between constituent parts of the UK.

The Republic of Ireland’s public broadcaster, RTE, reported these developments with a very different emphasis. The EU’s Brexit Task Force, it says, “remains convinced that Northern Ireland will have to remain part of the EU’s customs regime if a hard border is to be avoided.” The implication is that, while the original backstop text is being finessed and some of the practicalities reviewed, to make it more palatable for Britain, its essence has not changed significantly. “The EU hasn’t budged at all on the line that it still entails Northern Ireland joining the customs territory of the EU,” a source told RTE.

It’s hard to reconcile these comments and the reported detail of the confidential note with the idea that Brussels is making a major concession to the British government. The new protocol may try to win Theresa May over with moderate language and it may even be designed to look like a concession, but it’s unlikely to comprise an acceptance of Britain’s suggestions for the border.

A less visible frontier in the Irish Sea is not what was proposed at Chequers, it’s certainly not “Max Fac” and it still threatens to consign Northern Ireland to a different customs and regulatory regime than the rest of the nation. It’s exceptionally unlikely to be welcomed by unionists. The province’s economy is dependent overwhelmingly on doing business with the rest of the UK, rather than the Republic of Ireland.

That’s not to say that the latest twist in the Brexit saga is insignificant necessarily. At least, as we reach the fag-end of these negotiations, the Commission finally seems interested in listening to the British government’s concerns.

If the EU acknowledges that technology can be used to keep trade flowing freely between Great Britain and Ireland, it becomes more difficult to sustain its argument that a similar approach is “magical thinking” when applied to an Irish land border. Maybe a genuine breakthrough is possible. Though, at first inspection at least, today’s development isn’t it yet.