Is a new German defence minister good news for Ukraine?

There are high hopes in Kyiv tonight after Olaf Scholz’s embattled defence minister, Christine Lambrecht, resigned today after months of fierce criticism.

Lambrecht’s resignation comes at a crucial moment, as Scholz mulls whether to send Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, a German-made 63-tonne NATO-standard battle tank that Kyiv craves.

The now former defence minister had also been due to attend a top-level private meeting with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday, ahead of an important conference at the US military base in Ramstein, where Western allies will discuss further arms deliveries to Ukraine. 

Lambrecht, an ally of the Chancellor from his own Social Democratic Party, has presided over the sluggish and cack-handed attempt to reform Germany’s armed forces, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In his Zeitenwende – historic turning point – speech on 27 February last year just after the invasion, Scholz ditched Germany’s historically cautious defence policy, announcing €100bn of extra military spending.

Lambrecht was viewed as a weak candidate for the job when she was appointed in December 2021. And so it proved. There has been little progress on the new weapons systems and equipment Scholz spoke of. A string of media gaffes didn’t help her cause. A successor will be named tomorrow.

Could a new defence minister shift German policy on Ukraine?

Germany has already committed $2.34bn worth of military aid to Kyiv, including howitzers, Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and the first of four IRIS-T surface-to-air missile systems. While the total is more than the UK’s $1.9bn and second only to the US’s $18.51bn, Scholz hasn’t been able to shift the perception that he’s acting against his better judgment.

The Leopard-2 decision is a litmus test of Berlin’s stomach for ramping up support as the war approaches its anniversary. Modern tanks have been near the top of Zelensky’s wish-list since the early days of the war. Analysts believe more than half of Ukraine’s current tank reserves have been captured from Russia.

Crucially, Germany also controls the export licenses for all German-made tanks, meaning NATO allies considering sending Leopard-2s to Ukraine – like Finland, France and Poland – would need Berlin’s approval first. In terms of numbers, Berlin lifting its veto may prove more helpful than sending Leopard-2s itself.

Britain, meanwhile, has promised to send 14 Challenger-2 tanks to Ukraine in the coming weeks after a call between Rishi Sunak and Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday, ramping up pressure on Scholz to follow suit.

A new defence minister could well tip the balance.

Eva Högl, also from Scholz’s SDP, is one of the frontrunners to succeed Lambrecht. As parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces she has spent months chronicling the inadequacy of the federal army, the Bundeswehr.

Högl used an interview on Sunday to call for the tripling of Scholz’s €100bn funding commitment to the German armed forces, and while she was cautious about sending Germany’s own Leopard-2s to Ukraine – “You have to weigh up whether the Bundeswehr can really do without them” – she urged Scholz to lift the export license veto.

Scholz’s pledge to have an equal number of men and women in his cabinet makes Högl’s appointment more likely. Whoever gets the job, fresh thinking – and competence – can’t be a bad thing.  

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