Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?

Britain has stepped up its military support to Ukraine as fears mount that Vladimir Putin isn’t bluffing and that an invasion of Ukraine is imminent.

After a series of diplomatic summits between the US, NATO and Russia last week came to nothing, and with European leaders yet to form a united front on Moscow, the risk of war seems to be intensifying. Here’s what you need to know.

What’s going on at the Russia-Ukraine border?

Russia has massed 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border in what defence experts believe could well be a prelude to an invasion.

In recent days Russia has erected military hospitals and moved forces to Belarus, which borders Northern Ukraine and is considered the most likely route for a military offensive.

At the summits with the US and NATO last week, the Kremlin issued a series of demands, including that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO and that NATO should withdraw from all former Soviet republics.

The demands were rejected, as Russia knew they would be. Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has denied US claims that Moscow is looking for a pretext to invade Ukraine.

How is the UK getting involved?

Britain has sent an anti-tank missile system to Ukraine along with a small team of British troops to provide training to the Ukrainian army.

The missile system is thought to be the latest high-tech, lightweight anti-tank weaponry. The shoulder-launched system is capable of taking out a tank 800m away with a single shot.

In a statement in the Commons, Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, emphasised that the weapons were defensive. “They are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia,” he said. But there was “legitimate and very real concern” that Russian troops massed at the border could be used for an invasion and that the support was being sent in light of Russia’s “increasingly threatening behaviour”.

Wallace also invited his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, to visit London in the next few weeks “to discuss issues related to mutual security concerns and engage constructively, in good faith”.

The provision of equipment and troops is part of a wider effort among western powers to beef up Ukraine’s army after its forces surrendered Crimea in 2014 without firing a shot.

Several dozen British troops have been sent to Ukraine since 2015 for training purposes. The UK has also sold ships and naval equipment to Ukraine, announcing a £1.7bn deal to supply mine sweepers and jointly build eight ships for its small Black Sea fleet last year.

How is the rest of Europe responding?

Much to the frustration of the US, Europe’s leaders are yet to agree on a unified position on Russian aggression and its response if Russia were to invade Ukraine.

Complicating the picture are sky-high gas prices, and the worry that gas supplies from Russia could dry up.   

Europe and the US have quietly backed down from their threat to cut Russia off from the Swift international payments system as a sanction for invading, according to sources in Germany, although a White House National Security Council spokesperson rejected the story.

The Swift network handles £300bn of transactions a day. Excluding Russia from Swift is considered the “nuclear option” as it would sever Russia’s connection to, and send shockwaves through, the world economy.

The bloc might well agree on a raft of sanctions at the next foreign ministers’ meeting on 24 January. But there are no guarantees.

Is Vladimir Putin planning to invade?

What Putin plans to do next is unclear.

It could be that the President feels he has gone too far to back down, in which case he might feel compelled to act even if an invasion is extremely risky.

Washington has cited intelligence that Russia is plotting a “false flag” operation – an attack on its own forces as a pretext for invasion.

While invasion cannot be discounted, the worry across Europe is that Moscow’s real intention goes beyond Ukraine – to destabilise and divide the continent.

A huge cyber-attack that paralysed Ukraine’s government websites last week, presumed to have been carried out by Russia, points to an alternative course of action from invasion – a disruptive mix of hybrid warfare, including disinformation campaigns, to shift the geopolitics of Europe in its favour. 

Until Putin acts – and possibly after that – his intentions will remain obscure.