Israel delays full invasion and tries to keep enemies guessing

As Gaza awaits an Israeli full ground invasion to root out the terrorists of Hamas, an Israeli army spokesperson today threw cold water on that prospect saying that the next stage of the war may differ from expectations.

Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht, the IDF’s international spokesperson, told reporters: “We are preparing for the next stages of war. We haven’t said what they will be. Everybody’s talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different.”

Ever since Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel ten days ago, the conversation has been dominated by the troops Israel has amassed on its border with Gaza and its imminent ground invasion. But what factors are at play in Israel’s delay?

Iran is a major complicating factor. It has attempted to deter any imminent Israeli attack. On Monday, the Iranian foreign minister warned of “preemptive action” against Israel if it was to invade Gaza: “Leaders of the Resistance will not allow the Zionist regime to take any action in Gaza. … All options are open and we cannot be indifferent to the war crimes committed against the people of Gaza.”

Today, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called Israel’s air retaliation genocide: “If the crimes of the Zionist regime continue, Muslims and resistance forces will become impatient, and no one can stop them, bombardments should be immediately stopped, Muslim nations are angry.”

On Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, the IDF has been exchanging fire with the Iran-backed Islamist group Hezbollah. The Lebanese foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib has said that tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border will be very hard to deescalate and accused Israel of “pouring oil on the fire”. One resident of Metula, a town in northern Israel, told the Guardian: “If Hezbollah comes it will be much worse than Hamas … Hamas can send 1,000 men, Hezbollah can send 10,000. They have better weapons, and more support from Iran.”

Israel’s delay cannot all be attributed to Iran. As Ali Ansari, Professor of Iranian History at the University of St Andrews told Reaction: “I suspect Israel after days of reactive anger is adjusting itself to the realities of what a ground war in Gaza would entail. I don’t think this has anything to do with Iran.”

On top of realising just how costly entering an urban jungle it has carpet-bombed for over a week may be, Israel has, despite the shelling which has killed 2800 Palestinians, told Gazans to evacuate before it sends troops across the border. 

This humanitarian crisis of two million Gazans fleeing south to a closed Egyptian border at Rafah has meant intensified diplomatic efforts. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already made two trips since 7 October. President Joe Biden will visit Israel on Wednesday to show the US’s unwavering support of its war on Hamas after Washington confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to let humanitarian aid reach desperate Gazans. 

Biden will then head to Jordan to meet King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. He will also meet Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, which rules a limited part of the Israeli-occupied West Bank but which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007. 

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said on Sunday: “We are on the verge of the abyss in the Middle East.” Israel knows this, and unlike Hamas, it does not desire the abyss. The ground invasion of Gaza waits.

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