Israel-UAE “Abraham” agreement is a game-changer for Middle East relations

The historic rapprochement between the UAE and Israel received a pretty low-key reception worldwide, apart from the obligatory Trump triumphalist tweet, but the agreement is a global game changer. It has been long in the works, with many hands involved along the way, and there may be a few hidden bumps in the road – principally in the UAE’s involvement in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean.

In the end, though, this has been an adroit piece of diplomacy between Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Crown Prince Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed, the strongman of the United Arab Emirates. Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, seems to have played a role, too, but how indispensable he was in brokering the deal, only history will judge.

For Netanyahu and Trump it is a much needed diplomatic victory, probably the most successful of the Trump presidency to date. Netanyahu is mired in difficulty over the coronavirus and his lengthy corruption trial. The UAE agreement has allowed him to park the plan to annexe large parts of the West Bank sine die.

These are almost incidental details to the real significance of the agreement. The UAE is only the third Arab state to agree to full diplomatic recognition of Israel; a full exchange of ambassadors will ensue. Egypt did so in 1979, then Jordan in 1994. UAE is the first of the oil rich Gulf states – Oman and Bahrain are expected to follow shortly. The deal could not have been struck, most sources agree, without the active approval of Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The agreement with the Emiratis, which includes major industry, technology, medical and security projects, marks Israel moving into the mainstream dialogue of powers and nations of the region; an intellectual, economic and security leader in the Mediterranean and the wider Middle East.

The most vociferous critics have been the Palestinian Authority, Iran and Turkey. Turkey presents one of the less obvious problems – but one which could have unexpectedly serious and violent consequences.

Mohammed Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, said “it is a betrayal of Jerusalem, the al-Aqsa Mosque, and the Palestinian cause.” With some reason, the Palestinians may feel left out in the cold – they weren’t consulted at all – but access to the Islamic holy sites in Israel has been guaranteed specifically in yesterday’s agreement. “All Muslims who come in peace may visit and pray at the al-Aqsa Mosque, and Jerusalem’s other holy sites should remain open for peaceful worshippers of all faiths.”

The immediate setting for the announcement seems based on the effects of the coronavirus on both countries; the wider geopolitical context is the growing confrontation between the Gulf Arab nations and Iran.

After great initial success in containing the Covid crisis, Israel is facing a steady surge in new cases, recording 1,150 such on Wednesday. The UAE has imposed lockdown, particularly difficult for the immigrant worker populations from South Asia, which make up nearly 50% of the total residents. Many have gone home, if they can find the money and the plane tickets. The immigrant worker numbers have fallen by at least one tenth.

Many will not return because of the fall in demand and therefore the price in oil. UAE has a thriving biotech and defence industry sector. There are two UAE-Israel joint ventures in the field developing Covid vaccines and medicines. Israel and UAE have a common interest in surveillance equipment and drones. UAE has been developing its own defence industry in unmanned systems based on Chinese, French, and Italian technology and partnerships.

The biggest strategic threat for both Israel and the UAE and its Arab allies is from Iran. Recent threats – running from the summer of last year – by the Islamic Republic and the Revolutionary Guards Corps to shut the Straits of Hormuz seem to have been a last straw for the Emirates. To shut an international waterway which would choke the upper Gulf flouts basic international law and seems to have been a needlessly provocative challenge. Israel and the UAE-led Arab partnerships are saying that they are all in this together. The Abraham agreement, as it is called, sets the seal on this.

The threat from the Iranian cause includes Tehran’s allies and proxies, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon and the pro-Iranian Shiite levies and proxies in Iraq, such as Kataib Hezbollah, whose former commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed alongside the Iranian Quds forces chief, Qasim Soleimani, in Baghdad on January 2.

UAE deployed some of its weaponry and mercenaries against the Tripoli government in Libya this year. Earlier this summer they were bested by Turkish forces, sporting their own surveillance, drones and anti-aircraft equipment with notable success.

In Libya, UAE is supporting Egypt and Russia in backing the warlord of Benghazi, General Khalifa Haftar. Haftar’s forces have been in retreat after taking nearly a year to take Tripoli, and failing. Currently they are battling f or the lynchpin coastal city of Sirte.

The interest in Libya lies in its position in geology, politics and ideology. The oil is the prize for Haftar, but for his allies the focus is on the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egypt-UAE alliance sees the UN-backed Government of National Accord in Tripoli as being sponsored by the Muslim Brotherhood. In the Gulf, the ostracised gas-rich emirate of Qatar is regarded as the regional hub for the Muslim Brotherhood, by default a closet friend of Iran.

The Muslim Brotherhood seems to play a similar role in the political demonology of UAE as Hezbollah does for Israel – both are cast as threats to the state and the status quo.

The latest turn of diplomatic revolution puts Turkey and Russia in precarious positions. Russia is now stuck with its alliance to Hezbollah, the prime agent and ally of Iran in Syria and Lebanon – without Hezbollah and Moscow, Assad would fall.

Branded as a cover and sponsor for the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya and elsewhere, Turkey is being frozen out of the latest deals and arrangements to exploit and secure the eastern Mediterranean. Israel is now involved in a network of alliances with Cyprus, Egypt and Greece to develop new offshore oil and gas finds across the eastern Mediterranean. Here Israel’s prowess in offshore technology comes into play. It is an acknowledged world leader in the field.

This is an important ingredient in the new rapprochement with UAE, where Israel has pledged to work on such technologies and innovative irrigation for advanced agriculture onshore as well.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has set out to face down what he sees as Greece’s egregious and spurious claims to oil and gas rights in Turkish waters. The Turkish survey ship Oruc Reis, with an escort of five warships, has been despatched to the Greek island of Kastelloriza (or “Meis” in Turkish) on which Athens is staking a claim to offshore drilling rights. The island lies two kilometres from the southern Turkish coast, and 570 kilometres from the Greek mainland.

Not to be outdone, President Macron has despatched the frigate Lafayette and two Rafaele fighters to the vicinity prior to joining “major naval manoeuvres” off Crete.

Erdogan has denounced Israel’s role as “hypocritical” in the deal with the UAE. “The problem is that Israel is a major player, and partner, and has been for a long time,” a veteran EU diplomat told me just before the new rapprochement was announced. “It is a leader in technology, and the partners know it.

“France should stop playing off Turkey against the allies led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The French claim to be leading the EU’s foreign policy in this. In fact we all know they just represent France.”

The technology and security aspects of this major treaty should not be underestimated . Signs are that they are. This morning the Abraham Accord, the third agreement between Israel and an Arab power in history, was buried on the bottom of a page of regional news on the BBC website.

It is a major step for Israel and perhaps the most important for the United Arab Emirates since they gained independence from the British in 1971.