Killing of Hamas political leader signals major Middle East escalation

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed revenge on Israel following the killing of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. This is perhaps the most consequential moment in the Israel-Hamas conflict since October 7. 

Haniyeh “was a dear guest in our home”, said Khamenei, in a statement on his official website, adding: “We consider his revenge as our duty”.

The 62-year old Haniyeh, who was involved in negotiations for a Hamas-Israel ceasefire, was killed in a pre-dawn airstrike in the Iranian capital just hours after a meeting with the Supreme Leader. 

While Israel has not commented on the attack, Hamas has laid the blame firmly at its feet. The group has put out a statement, declaring that its political chief was killed in “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran”. Hamas’ military wing has warned that Haniyeh’s assassination “takes the battle to new dimensions and will have major repercussions on the entire region.”

This comes just hours after the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, which Israel has claimed responsibility for, that has sparked further concern of all-out war on Israel’s northern border. 

Fouad Shukr was in a building hit by a strike in Beirut, which has reportedly killed three in total and injured 74. Shukr was a senior advisor on military affairs to Hezbollah chief, Hasan Nasrallah, and the IDF claims he was the man responsible for the deadly attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend. He is also said to have been instrumental in the October 1983 bombing of the US Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut which claimed the lives of over 200 US military personnel.

The targeting of Haniyeh and Shukr signals a major escalation. Any possible ceasefire is likely off the cards for the foreseeable future and Iran’s other proxy groups in the Middle East – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – can be expected to increase their activity in the region.

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