Labour leadership: Corbynites look to strengthen their grip

As the contest to become next Labour leader heats up Angela Rayner declared her candidacy for the post of deputy leader and Keir Starmer, standing for leader, hit the campaign trail. But the meeting in London of the Labour Party National Executive Committee, which is responsible for internal party governance, was the more important event.

After some initial embarrassment caused by the disgraced Keith Vaz turning up claiming a right to participate in the meeting as Labour’s BAME representative, a position he does technically still hold, the NEC got down to the vital business of the day – deciding the rules governing the upcoming Labour leadership election.

Two key decisions were taken. The first that candidates would have a week to gather the necessary nominations to run as leader. Any candidate will need the support of 21 MPs, as well as the support of either 5% of constituency party bodies or 3 affiliated societies of which two are trade unions.

The second and even more contentious decision concerned those who are not currently part of the Labour Party but who wish to become registered supporters in order to vote in the next leadership election. Following the rules used in the 2016 leadership election there will only be a 48 hour window – from the 14th to the 16th of January – and it will cost £25 to register.

While these are the same rules as those used in the 2016 leadership election the decision can be seen as move by the NEC, which is dominated by pro-Corbyn figures, to try to ensure the continued influence of their wing of the party. As the Labour leader is chosen by the party members, affiliated supporters, and registered supporters the rules governing them are vitally important.

In 2015 becoming a registered supporter, which only gives a one off right to vote in for the leader and deputy leader, cost only £3 and had a two-month sign up period. This was exploited by Momentum to pull in a surge of new voters and propel Jeremy Corbyn to power.

This time around many believed that lower costs and a longer sign up period for membership would help candidates who are not too closely aligned with Corbyn as they could appeal to people who had left the party over Corbyn to rejoin and vote for them.

Still, attempts to manipulate leadership election rules to help a particular candidate or faction have a track record of not working as planned. Ed Miliband’s reforms that further empowered the membership to choose Labour leaders – leading to Corbyn – had been enthusiastically supported by figures such as Tony Blair who saw them as part of the project to modernise the party, and undermine the power of the unions.

Meanwhile, in 2016 when Owen Smith challenged Corbyn, the Corbynite NEC tried to damage Smith’s candidacy with the same 48 hour £25 system which is being reused in this leadership election. Despite this more people registered than in 2015 and voted overwhelmingly for Corbyn.

As a result, while analysts can speculate about rule changes making predictions difficult, the fight over procedure are more an indication of where party factions think they stand. The Corbynites seem keen to strengthen their grip on the party even as Corbyn leaves. Rumours are swirling that Karie Murphy, a key Corbyn ally and architect of Labour’s disastrous electoral strategy, is looking to push through an overhaul of the party machinery before Jeremy Corbyn himself leaves his leadership position in March.

The rumoured plans would see the party slash the Labour HQ analytics and election teams – the former had an unfortunate habit of pointing out polls that Corbynites disliked predicting the upcoming pasting – and have community organisers, a brainchild of Murphy’s, take over from regional officials.

These moves also suggest a lack of faith on the part of the Corbynites in their preferred candidate Rebecca Long-Bailey, who is expected to formally declare her candidacy in the upcoming days.

Long-Bailey is already expected to come a distant second to Keir Starmer. Some pro-Labour critics of Starmer worry about his strongly pro-Remain stance as Labour’s Shadow Brexit Secretary, and his background as a north London lawyer, and knighthood, meaning he could struggle to appeal to voters in the North and the Midlands who abandoned the party over Brexit. Yet an early poll of party members – by the pollster YouGov – showed him beating Long-Bailey by a thumping 61% to 39%.

Other MPs who have launched, or are contemplating, leadership bids might upset things in what will be a long campaign (the winner is not declared until April 4th, Grand National day) but for the moment none seems positioned to do so. On the left figures such as Ian Lavery and Clive Lewis will struggle to distinguish themselves from Long-Bailey as they make a similar Corbyn continuity pitch. Figures further towards the traditional centre, including Dan Jarvis and Jess Philipps, are likely to prove unpalatable to the Corbynites. Lisa Nandy might be a compromise candidate but she lacks a major political profile and might struggle to even be nominated in these tight conditions. Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry might yet disrupt things but she has garnered little attention in the past few weeks.

Indeed, possibly the most impressive candidate for leader – Angela Rayner- today formally ruled herself out of that race taking the long signalled step of formally declaring she was running for the position of deputy leader and declaring her support for her close friend Long-Bailey if RLB stands. She declared that Labour had to stop talking of “revolutionary changes” if it wanted to seem credible – implicitly breaking with Corbyn – and the party had to now “win or die”. That being the case, you had to wonder why she was nevertheless backing Long-Bailey. The pair are friends. And it may be that she calculates that this is a leadership race to lose, making a run for leader next time more advisable. It could be a long way back for Labour.