Little Jack Frost, get lost

Gas prices hit a two-month high today as the big chill sweeping across Europe forces households to reach for the thermostat.

Benchmark European natural gas futures surged by around 6 per cent to the highest level since mid-October as temperatures dipped to -6C across much of the UK overnight into Thursday.

Remember the Beast from the East? This time it’s the “Troll of Trondheim” – a freezing blast from Arctic Norway – sending a chill down the country’s spine.

The Met Office has several severe weather warnings in place, including across the western and eastern coasts of England and Wales, parts of Northern Ireland and northern Scotland.

If the cold weather continues, it will put Britain’s energy infrastructure under sever strain.

National Grid, which came close to implementing its blackout plan last month, says its “base case” is for the country to avoid blackouts this winter. But it has also sketched out a combination of events involving insufficient gas supplies and reduced electricity imports which would make energy rationing much more likely.

Whether the country is forced into this last resort depends on three key factors: temperatures, wind speeds, and how much energy the UK can import from abroad.

The UK’s energy supply is intertwined with the rest of Europe, and interconnectors – huge undersea cables transporting electricity and gas to and fro between the UK and the continent – will play an important role in determining whether Britain keeps the lights on.

This interdependence with the continent means the UK is in part reliant on continued goodwill from the likes of France (upping the stakes in England’s World Cup quarter final on Saturday).

So far, this hasn’t been a problem. The UK and Europe head into the cold snap in a stronger position than many anticipated. European countries have managed to fill their gas storage facilities more quickly than expected, meaning there’s been less competition for gas.

But France is having problems getting several nuclear power stations back online after maintenance. French utility giant EDF saw its electricity output drop to a 30-year low earlier in the year due to a record number of nuclear reactor outages, and is racing against time to bring its power stations back to full capacity. If France doesn’t have sufficient supplies for its own citizens, Emmanuel Macron will have to work out whether curbing supply to Britain would be worth the diplomatic inferno.  

Mother Nature could prove a much bigger problem than the French. A mild winter so far has also allowed consumers to tighten their belts, tempering demand for energy. Britons cut their gas and electricity use by 10 to 15 per cent in November compared to seasonal averages, according to E.ON, the country’s second-biggest supplier, and Telecom Plus, which owns utility warehouse.  

But wind and sun also play an important role in the energy equation. Last month, the dreaded dunkelflaute (German for “dark doldrums”) – a period of cloudy stillness meaning very little solar or wind power can be generated – meant parts of northern Europe had to rely more heavily on gas.

A cold, cloudy, windless winter will be high up on Vladimir Putin’s Christmas list.