Lockdown 2.0 on its way

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Government ministers are in crisis talks behind the scenes over whether – and when – to call another national lockdown after fresh warnings that Covid-19 is spreading faster than predicted.

It’s not an enviable choice, a sort of tortuous version of Pascal’s wager. On the one hand, ministers are being bombarded with new information that the virus is running out of control and that, if they do not act quickly to limit the transmission, there will be more deaths than even the worst prognosis. Others say that the hospitals will be overwhelmed by November 17.

Yet they are also facing a chorus of doomsday warnings that another national lockdown will crucify the country economically but also lead to even greater health and mental problems.

For once, the stock markets are tracking reality, and can see a bleak winter ahead. Investors have given up any hope of a V-shaped recovery. They know that another lockdown will have a dire impact on so many small businesses which are already struggling.

After a miserable week, the FTSE 100 index is now down to around the level it was in March. With the furlough scheme ending tomorrow, it is inevitable that many companies will decide to give up and cut staff. There will be many more jobs lost and much more pain.

As I said, it’s not an enviable choice.

So what is the evidence behind the pressure for another lockdown? It’s mainly based on the latest report from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) which claims the virus is spreading significantly faster than even the government’s predicted ‘reasonable worst-case’ scenario. Four times as many people are catching the virus than had been anticipated, they say.
Sage’s scientists reckon that by mid-October, there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected with coronavirus every day in England, and that those with Covid needing hospital care is already higher than the winter plan.

This is far greater than the ‘profile’ of the worst-case scenario which had been based on around 12,000-13,000 throughout October.

SAGE also indicated that, at this rate, the number of deaths which had been predicted at 85,000 over the course of the winter, will be exceeded.

Warwick University’s Dr Mike Tildesley, who sits on the SAGE sub-group, told the BBC that although there is still great uncertainty, more action will be needed on a national scale in an attempt to stop the spread.

Some say we are already too late. Sir Jeremy Farrar, another SAGE adviser, says any further delay will be costly and will mean later restrictions will be “harder and longer”.

Yet there are so many contradictory reports, and many unanswered questions, that it is hard to know what to make of the latest figures.  Infections levels in the North East are said to be tailing off while Liverpool is reporting the same flattening of cases.

And it’s not true that all hospitals are being overwhelmed – hospitals in many regions such as East Anglia are nowhere near full. Nationally we also still have the Nightingale hospitals which could be used for non-Covid problems if required, with help from the military services which should have been brought in throughout this crisis in a far more positive way.

Even so, it looks as though we are heading for a new lockdown, one which will be announced as early as the middle of next week, but with schools staying open. The country needs to be given a much more transparent picture so we know why the choice has been made. And the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, needs to come out of hiding to tell us why.

Deadly tremors in the Aegean 

Thoughts go to those who have been hurt by the Turkish earthquake, another reminder that its the natural world that is in control and not the other way around.

Eight people died and at least 200 were injured today as a powerful earthquake rocked the city of Izmir on the western Turkish coast and the nearby Greek islands.

Izmir, known as the pearl of the Aegean and Turkey’s third biggest city with a population of 4.5 million, was struck by tremors reaching a magnitude of 7 earlier.  A massive emergency operation is underway tto rescue those feared to be buried still under the rubble.

Tremors were felt as far as Athens and Bulgaria. EU chiefs say emergency services are on stand-by while French president Macron  – who is in something of a stand-off with the Turkish president, Erdogan – has offered separately to help. Could tragedy bring about a pax between the two?

The swinging swing states 

Only four days to go before the greatest show on earth, with America going to the polls. While Joe Biden seems to have a clear lead the polls could be wrong and turnout is already surging. It is nail-biting.

So much so that private companies have been hired to entice as many voters as they can: the NBA, for example, is turning its courts into polling stations.

And they are hoping to swing even the most unlikely of swingers. On the hot line from the US, our man on the ground, Joseph Rachman, reports from Washington that the so-called Adult Friend Finder, is out and about aiming to reach a new sort of “swing voter”. Called Swinging in Swing States, “adult friends” are offering special members bonuses to its “clients” who prove they voted in 13 of the key swing states. Only in America.

We will be keeping you in the swing of things throughout the battle to come with reports from Joseph, analysis from our writers and a live blog through the night and next day.

Have a good weekend.

Maggie Pagano
Executive Editor