Macron bids to take Europe – and Britain – back to the future

Could Britain find its way back into what Tony Blair liked to call the heart of Europe by way of a back door held open by all people, Emmanuel Macron? 

Just two days after being inaugurated for a second term as French President, Macron has called for the construction of a loosely-based European Political Community, or EPC, separate from the EU, that would include not only Ukraine but Turkey, Switzerland, Norway and – whisper it softly – the UK. 

The putative new body, which he described as a “historic obligation,” would focus on matters of obvious mutual concern: security, energy, transport, investment, infrastructure and the movement of citizens and others across national frontiers. 

Addressing the European Parliament in his capacity as the current EU president (an office he holds until the end of June), Macron made no explicit mention of defence or the Atlantic Alliance; nor did he refer directly to the possibility of UK participation, but rather to a place for “countries that have chosen to leave the Union”. 

His meaning, however, was unambiguous. He wants Europe to come together on the big issues, untrammelled by bureaucracy and treaty obligations. For the Europe of Nations, it would be back to the future. 

Should such an organisation be agreed – and at this stage, it is pure conjecture – it would have an obvious appeal to the UK. There would be no constitution, no rule book, and no requirement to do more than debate. But in the midst of a crisis affecting the whole of Europe, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it would provide a valuable forum, giving heads of state and ministers an opportunity (lost to Britain since Brexit) to develop relationships beyond the remit of NATO and trade. 

Given that the British Government appears set on a collision course with Brussels over the Northern Ireland Protocol and is reportedly planning a “bonfire” of EU regulations, it is unlikely that the Macron Memorandum will feature high on its list of diplomatic priorities. “Europe” is a dirty word in Downing Street just now, never more so than when associated with or driven by the French. 

But when the dust finally settles on Brexit, it will be time for new beginnings. 

Britain’s primary objection to EU membership, especially since the passage of the Lisbon Treaty in 2007, has always been that it imprisoned it in a straitjacket, depriving it of freedom of action, subjecting it to decisions made behind closed doors in accordance with an ideology based on Ever Closer Union. 

The fact that Britain was exempted from participation in both the single currency and the Schengen accords and enjoyed a unique one-third annual rebate of its contribution to the shared budget was never enough for Conservative hardliners. They wanted a complete separation, and now that they have it, they are likely to be wary of any approach that might draw them back in. 

Getting Brexit Undone is not a slogan that Boris Johnson for one is likely to adopt.  

But, in the longer term, a two-tier Europe, one inside the Eurozone, the other outside of treaty obligations and extending as far as (and potentially including) Russia, would have its attractions. Britain could, as now, ignore the Commission, the Council, the Parliament, the Court and the Bank – all the panoply of Europe’s Ode to Joy – which brought it nothing but misery down the years.

At the same time, it would have a seat at the new top table and would fancy its chances of becoming the leader in key debates that touched on defence, intelligence and relations with the wider world, including America and the Commonwealth. 

On the downside, the possibility that the EPC could end up as no more than a talking shop, or a branch office of the UN, or that over time it would solidify into another rules-based bureaucracy, would deter those who believe that sovereignty is indivisible and that old wine in a new bottle is never a good idea. 

What the rest of Europe will make of the latest wizard wheeze to come out of Paris remains to be seen. Macron went straight from Strasbourg to Berlin for talks with the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who in welcoming his guest described him as an “inspirational force” in Europe.

The two leaders are nominally on the same page when it comes to EU integration. Both say they want to streamline decision-making and to move ahead on deepening economic and fiscal cooperation. But when push comes to shove, both look out for their own interests, as in relations with Vladimir Putin and the imposition of a complete ban on Russian gas imports. 

If Scholz comes on board with the idea of an EPC, the possibility exists that the EU’s Franco-German motor could promote a paradox in which Europe, within the treaties, would operate more closely than ever as a single entity while in the vital, but amorphous, area of foreign policy, defence and internal affairs, giving member states the freedom to do more or less as they choose. 

The argument underpinning Macron’s proposal turns certain EU assumptions upside down without necessarily rendering them unworkable, bringing to mind the analysis of the former Irish prime minister Garret FitzGerald when confronted with one especially convoluted piece of EU legislation: “I can see how this would work in practice, but how would it work in theory?”      

In practice, it would be possible to posit a Europe in which Brussels prevailed in the governance of the Euro, interest rates, trade relations, market regulation, standards, environmental protection, regional development and control of the external border while leaving everything else to the EPC.

This would rule out further progress towards Ever Closer Union, the Holy Grail of the European Project, but would have the corresponding advantage of maintaining the grandeur of France (and Germany and the UK) while appealing to those countries, like Hungary, that are keen to share the economic advantages of EU membership but baulk at the idea of being told how to run their domestic affairs. 

Ukraine already knows that any decision on its application to join the EU is years off (as is the case for Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and Turkey). But if it could be brought in speedily to a more broadly defined, and financially generous, union offering the effective add-on of Nato observer status, it might well conclude that events were moving in its direction. 

The whole business is immensely complicated and will probably come to nothing, like all previous proposals for two-speed or two-tier Europes. But Macron, as the most imaginative as well as the most self-regarding French President since the late Valery Gicard d’Estaing, is already thinking of his legacy, which – however counter-intuitive it sounds – may already include bringing Britain back into the fold.

With the wind in his sails, and always assuming he secures a majority in next month’s elections to the National Assembly, he will at least plant the idea in the heads of a new generation of Europeans. And that can be no bad thing.