Macron stands firm as Left promises French revolution over pensions
Who would want to be be President of France right now? Forget for a moment the war in Ukraine. Put aside the massive losses by the state-owned electricity giant EDF and the corresponding windfall profits of the privately-owned Total-Energies, the country’s leading oil and gas producer. Never mind the fact that many high street chains are in deep trouble, hit by falling sales and threats of bankruptcy. Ignore the scale of the national debt as it nudges 115 per cent of nominal GDP.
Instead, try to get your head around the ongoing political crisis caused by the refusal of, well, nearly everybody to accept a modest rise in the retirement age from 62 to 64.
Adding two years to the working lives of most French workers would still leave them among the most coddled in Europe, where retirement at 66, rising to 67, even 68, is the norm. The fact is, the French aren’t having it. It doesn’t matter to them that a decade or so from now, under the existing arrangements, the Treasury will start running out of cash to fund state pensions. That’s not their problem, it’s the Government’s problem, and the Government is only there to carry out the people’s wishes as expressed on the streets.
A few days ago, François Hollande, the former Socialist Party President, whose time in office was a non-stop embarrassement, dismissed the proposed reform as wrong in principle and unworkable in practise. Yes, there was a crisis in the making, but the way to resolve it, at least in the short run, was to fiddle the system and increase taxes on the wealthy.
A decade ago, Hollande took the view that change was unavoidable if France was to pay its way by 2020. “When we live longer we must work a little bit longer,” he said. But when push came to shove, he did nothing. In fact, he actually made it easier for workers in stressful jobs, including performers at the Paris Opera, to retire at 60 instead of 62.
Nicolas Sarkozy, President from 2007 to 2012, was the one who upped the age at which the French could put their feet up to the dizzy height of 62. He had hoped to move the needle further, to 65, where it had been traditionally until François Mitterrand took it down to 60 as an election bribe. But he backed off as the unions and popular opinion moved against him. Jacques Chirac, in the Elysée for 12 years prior to Sarkozy, is remembered fondly these days for keeping France out of the Iraq war, but also for giving in smartly when a package of reforms that did not even include the retirement age, introduced by prime minister Alain Juppé, met with a resounding Non on the Paris boulevards.
Meanwhile, the pension coffers were being emptied as if tomorrow would never come. Whatever else Macron may or may not achieve, at least he has kept to his pledge to make the French wake up to a reality they preferred to ignore.
Politically, the last two weeks were nothing if not entertaining. Deputies from the far-Left France Insoumise party heckled pro-reform speakers virtually non-stop, calling them “assassins,” ”pissheads,” even brothel-keepers. One irate representative had to be manhandled from the chamber by officials; another was suspended after being photographed at a street demonstration with his foot pressing down on a ball labelled as the head of labour minister Olivier Dussopt. It was as if the Palais Bourbon, normally about as exciting as a gathering of actuaries, had take lessons from its opposite numbers in Greece and South Korea.
Unmoved by the anger on display, Dussopt followed the advice that used to be found in French hotel rooms “in case of fire” and guarded his sang-froid. To the frustration of his enemies, he even made a point of completing his morning crossword. “You can insult us all you like,” he remarked imperiously, “we won’t crack”.
Come Friday evening, with no meaningful vote possible, the guillotine came down on the proceedings and the Bill moved to the Senate, a much more sedate body in which the Government has a working majority. From there, all being well from the Macroniste standpoint, it should go to the Élysée for the President’s signature and thus, by the equivalent of an Order in Council, pass into law.
Will that be an end to it? Will the unions and the Left simply give up and take their medicine? The answer to that is No and No. The unions, led by the heavily moustachioed Philippe Martinez, and the leftist coalition, ruthlessly drilled by the Corbynite Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have vowed to deliver a summer of discontent such as has not been seen in France since the evenements of 1968. March 7 has been set as the date for the next mega-manif, with more to come, each in theory bigger than the last.
Whether the people have the stomach for such a fight is difficult to judge. The unions are not what they were and the numbers coming out on strike have fallen off somewhat this month. There is a feeling of weariness in the air and of a fait-accompli on the Government’s part that may prove difficult to reverse. Not only that, but the far-Right, led in the Assembly by Marine Le Pen, looks as if it will go only so far and no further on the retirement issue, preferring to burnish its image as the “responsible” Opposition while the Left exhausts itself on the barricades.
France being France, however, nothing should be taken for granted, including final passage of the Bill. Everything remains in play. But for once it is the Government that looks as if it may – just – hold the winning hand.
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