Major gains for Poland’s pro-EU opposition in historic poll

The right-wing Law & Justice Party (PiS) may lose power after an historic round of elections in Poland saw voters turn to the pro-EU mainstream.

With 80% of votes counted, PiS have about 37% of the vote – slightly higher than estimated – and are projected to win around 198 seats in Poland’s lower house. That’s down 37 seats on 2019. 

As the largest of a right-wing coalition since 2015, PiS has instituted controversial reforms to immigration law, state media and the judiciary which have angered EU allies. Opposition leaders have indicated their desire to roll many of those reforms back if they get into power.

Under the Polish constitution, the President appoints the leader of the largest party to form a government. PiS remains the largest party, albeit short of a majority, and it has an ally in President Andrzej Duda.

Donald Tusk, former European Council President and leader of KO declared that ‘democracy has won’ and vowed to immediately begin negotiations with leaders of the two other main opposition parties, Third Way and The Left. ‘Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place… we have removed them from power’, he told journalists Sunday night.

Some had argued that Polish voters were so exhausted by perceptions of corruption and political in-fighting that this was going to be a lame duck election. According to the BBC, local election officials now estimate a turnout of nearly 73% – if accurate, the highest since the founding of the modern Polish state in 1989.

Poland is the fifth largest country in the EU and third highest defence spender per capita in NATO, behind only Greece and the United States. KO, Third Way and The Left all campaigned on restoring EU relations and a firmer stance of support for Ukraine.

In September, the Polish government joined other Eastern European countries in refusing an EU order to resume Ukrainian grain imports, citing the interests of rural farmers. It later halted arms supplies to Ukraine, partly in response to Ukrainian criticism of the move.

Over 600,000 expatriate Poles voted, including some of the 700,000 registered in Britain. 

“They’re the most important elections I’ve voted in during my lifetime,” Magdalena Bozek, a Polish voter in London, told the BBC. “It’s been quite a difficult eight years for us, for pro-Europeans.”

Counting continues today.

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