May can deliver Brexit if she announces she will go in April

Theresa May is on the brink. We will know by 10 o’clock tonight whether she will be finally ousted… but we know very little else. If she wins, then what? If she loses, then what? Well, a new Conservative leader, but then what? Can’t we all just have a quiet, non-political Christmas? No.

The Prime Minister has never been so weak. When the ERG launched their ultimately botched coup just weeks ago, it seemed likely that May would survive it, but then it never materialised. The magic number is 158, the number of MPs needed to topple the PM, and it looked very doubtful the ERG had the numbers. Since then, the PM has managed to alienate even more people.

The Withdrawal Agreement has been marketed terribly, highlighting what a poor politician Theresa May can be. The government mishandled its publication and then failed miserably in selling it. The politics of it all was botched as the PM continued to try and charm her hardliners when she should have sought support from moderates and Remainers. She managed to get to a point where there was talk of losing the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement by anywhere between 100-200 votes.

For many, pulling out of the vote may have been the last straw. Yes, she’d have likely lost, but there was a growing sense that this simply had to happen. Get it out of the way, squeeze something more out of the EU, appeal to moderate MPs and try and get it through a second time. Instead she ducked it completely with the suspicion being that she was kicking the can down the road deliberately. By pushing the vote into next year she could blackmail moderates with the threat of no deal. This went down like a mug of steaming vomit.

Additionally, it was the epitome of her secretive processes and faulty decision making. She had sent Ministers out just the day before to insist the vote would go ahead and many MPs had gone out on a limb for her despite upsetting their local parties. It also highlighted that she may not be capable of getting the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament, partly because of its contents but also because she is a tone-deaf communicator and poor diplomat. This week she was reduced to taking the begging bowl across Europe. It is unedifying.

Politically, and setting aside what an absolute omnishambles this is for the country, it’s actually quite exciting. Right now, her MPs have a lot of things to weight up. If May wins she could technically stay on unchallenged for a year, this may swing the votes of people who had it in mind that she would leave in March/April. However, many others may consider this a short-term decision and that this point of crisis is the wrong time to change leader.

On Brexit, what exactly are the choices? A vote for the PM should essentially be seen as a vote for her Withdrawal Agreement, perhaps with some clarifications issued by EU leaders. Any MP wanting radical change should surely vote against her, but then what does this mean? The main candidates will run on a Canada+ or no deal ticket or a soft Brexit ticket. Anyone running on a proposal to pursue amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement or backstop may find it difficult to get into the last 2, where they would likely prove unpopular with Party members.

Another factor, which may cause yet more glorious political mess, is the very serious prospect that if a candidate wins pledging to pursue ‘no deal’ or a ‘managed’ no deal unless the EU caves into our demands, the government could very well collapse. It would only take twelve Conservative MPs to resign the whip on this point of principle and we could be looking at a general election and even a second referendum. Some MPs will be put off by the prospect of a general election and Corbynism, others may go for a kamikaze push for another plebiscite.

Theresa May needs to see sense. Whatever happens tonight, she’s done. She can forget building a long-term legacy based on a domestic agenda. She can forget leading her Party into another election. She can forget trying to be something more than the Brexit Prime Minister. The dream is over. She is the midwife of Brexit and that is all she can ever be.

With that in mind, as part of her pitch to remain in office, she should announce that she will step aside in April to make way for a new leader to manage the next stage of Brexit negotiations and build the future framework. She should say she considers it her duty to see through this difficult first stage of the project, and that she will seek clarifications of her Withdrawal Agreement before trying once again to get the deal done. This could give her ‘now is not the time’ rhetoric some real depth, give reassurance that she will not attempt to cling to power and will not be building Brexit Britain in her image. Maybe, just maybe, enough MPs will back her on that basis.