May’s rise seals the end of the Blair-Cameron era
The Party Conference season is once again drawing to a close. To most people these events come and go without much notice. To the die-hard activists, serial attenders and pundits much effort and analysis will have been expended for relatively little return. The annual Party Conference as an event is well past its sell-by date. But this year what have we learnt about the UK’s three main political parties?
Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon, whose conference takes place in Glasgow starting next week, are secure in their jobs as leaders. Neither Theresa May nor Nicola Sturgeon is seriously challenged by their political opponents. Any challenge the three party leaders do face will come from within their own party. The three leaders are not only comfortably in control of their party but on the whole confidently so.
As a party Labour at Westminster is going to have to work out how to cooperate with its leader and provide a viable opposition. This is easier said than done but Mr Corbyn has won two leadership elections convincingly and until and unless he decides to step down he is the leader.
Theresa May dominated her first conference as leader and Prime Minister, radiating a sense of discipline and purpose. She has taken a grip of the Party from the top down. Not everyone has found it easy to respond to the new way of doing things. Across Whitehall one sees ministers and officials alike raising their game and generally being more focussed. It is true to say that not since Lady Thatcher have Whitehall Departments been so respectful of a request or inquiry from No 10.
But what the event of the last few weeks demonstrate most is that the era of “Blamorism” has well and truly been laid to rest. The merits, accomplishments and consequences of the Blair/Cameron years will be debated and argued about for decades, but they were essentially part of one political settlement brought to an end by the election of Jeremy Corbyn and and ascension of Theresa May.
From 1997 to 2016 the country was governed by a way of thinking and a group of people in the big parties who had more in common with each other than they did, on the whole, with the parties they led. What a nineteen years it was, and by its end the United Kingdom had been changed fundamentally.
Much good was achieved in social reform, educational improvement, and the focus on public services. On the whole however it seems likely this period will be seen as a uniquely destructive and damaging period in the country’s World War II history: the economy brought to its knees in the financial crisis and the national debt trebled, the disintegration of the Union between Scotland and England, the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. Add to that the collapse in trust not only of politicians but in the nation’s very institutions, the carelessness and insouciance in the process of government and in the public appointments that were made. Taken as a whole it has been a difficult and sorry period. It is this legacy that Theresa May inherits, presenting her with a unique and extraordinary opportunity.
On the day of her election as leader of the Conservative Party I wrote that Theresa May would be no continuation of David Cameron. I said she would make a clear and decisive break with what had gone before and would strike out in her own direction. From the moment the new Prime Minister walked up Downing Street this is what she has been intent on doing. In Birmingham this week it is what she has continued to do.
Taking the issue of Brexit head-on on Sunday was sensible. The Prime Minister set out a clear route and timeline. The government has already been effectively engaging with business and others. In fact given the pressure Whitehall and Ministers have been under since the EU Referendum they have risen to the task of handling the early stages of the Brexit process remarkably effectively – so far. Dealing with this great issue first meant that the rest of the conference could proceed as normally as any conference proceeds.
Throughout the week Theresa May has exuded confidence, calm, firmness of purpose and a sharp sense of humour that set the mood. The No 10 machine has been acclimatising to this new approach of substance as well as style since she took over. Indeed so complete is her dominance of the Party is that it is increasingly difficult to remember that Theresa May has not been at the helm for years as opposed to weeks.
In the same way that David Cameron is desperate not to be remembered as the Prime Minister who accidentally enabled Britain’s departure from the EU, so Theresa May does not want her Premiereship to be simply about delivering Brexit. Her great opportunity after the years of ‘Blamorism’ is to restore confidence and integrity in the way we are governed, to help restore trust and faith in our institutions, political process and democracy itself. Delivering Brexit can, and will, be part of that process. Her actions and policy priorities will be the other part.
By their behaviour as well as their policies do we come to know our leaders. The verdict of history has so far not been kind to Tony Blair. It is too early to tell with David Cameron. But where there was “sofa government” May has restored process. Where there was endless chasing the media she has imposed control. Where there was a casualness with decision making she has brought rigour. Where there was carelessness in how people and party were treated she has restored thoughtfulness. What is already clear Theresa May marks a new, distinct and refreshing change in both how we are governed and in the analysis of what needs to be done.