Meet Oleksiy Arestovych, Ukraine’s king of spin

Much has been made of Russia’s poorly veiled propaganda machine which has been spinning in top gear ever since it invaded Ukraine. In the first days of the conflict, Russian troops reportedly expected to be welcomed by their Ukrainian neighbours – others, apparently did not even know that they were in Ukraine, believing that they were on military exercises.

Even in Russian-occupied Mariupol, a city reduced to rubble by the invading forces, mobile propaganda vans display Russian news channels, whilst the Russian government claims to have “liberated” the city.

But in the mass condemnation of blatant Russian propaganda, the West seems to have forgotten that the Ukrainian government, and one man in particular, has also been engaged in spinning. 

Oleksiy Arestovych is Volodomyr Zelenskyi’s official spokesperson when it comes to the war in Ukraine, but he is also a spin-doctor and propagandist. In daily government briefings, which have been run by Arestovych since 24 February, the presidential adviser gives updates on the war – often downplaying Ukrainian shortcomings.

Arestovych’s use of propaganda is no secret, he admitted as much in 2017, writing on Facebook that he has “lied a lot since the spring of 2014.”

“it was pure propaganda work, prompted by Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine,” he added.

A self-proclaimed military expert, Arestovych made his name as a blogger in the wake of the 2014 revolution in Ukraine, and Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Arestovych made many television appearances and amassed a significant following on various social media channels.

Born in 1975, Arestovych has been involved in the Ukrainian government since 2020 – starting out as an adviser and speaker for the Ukrainian delegation at the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk. Since then, his governmental career has prospered.

But Arestovych’s political career has surprising origins, and he has experience that lends itself to the role of spin-doctor that he has embraced.

Likewise with the Ukrainian president, Zelenskyi, Arestovych began his career in acting in the 1990s. He also studied psychology and has previously held psychological seminars. Additionally, Arestovych has been involved in the Ukrainian military, including becoming a major in the army reserves.

This combination of acting ability, psychology and military knowledge seems to have benefitted Arestovych in his political and blogging careers – helping him act as a military adviser, adept at communicating to the Ukrainian people.

Speaking to OpenDemocracy, political scientist Maxim Yali said: “When people are under tremendous stress, they need guidance, experts they can trust, whose statements will support them psychologically. This is the role Arestovych fulfils.”

To Arestovych, Ukraine’s fight is one between good and evil: “[Russia] wants us to become like them. They want to turn us into demons. We simply can’t let them do this,” he said in an interview with The Economist.

And yet, in Arestovych’s past there are murky details that are not so favourable to the man tasked with keeping Ukrainian morale high. It is possible, to some extent at least, that Arestovych constitutes one of the “Nazis” that Putin claims to be liberating Russian speaking Ukrainians from.

In 2005, Arestovych became involved in the far-right group Bratstvo (Brotherhood), which viewed itself as a “Christian Hezbollah.” He also attended conferences run by Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin.

Beyond his daily briefings, it was a video from 2019 that brought Arestovych into the Ukrainian public eye. In the video, Arestovych predicted that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be most likely to take place by 2022.

“An invasion by Russian troops from our borders, the siege of Kyiv, using troops built up [in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions], transfer of troops via Crimea, taking of the Kakhovka reservoir to give Crimea water. An attack from Belarusian territory. Setting up of new ‘People’s Republics’. Attacks on critical infrastructure. Use of paratrooper forces. This is what a big war will look like,” Arestovych said.

Yet Arestovych is not some genius of military strategy. Ruslan Bortnik, the director of Ukrainian Institute of Politics, said: “Almost every serious Ukrainian political scientist predicted [the war]. Arestovych is great at PR, but he is not a forecaster nor an insider, nor a political or military expert. He is a screenwriter, coach and populariser.”

Bortnik also added that Arestovych “makes a lot of predictions and only some of them come true.”

Indeed, in March, Arestovych predicted: “No later than in May, early May, we should have a peace agreement, maybe much earlier, we will see, I am talking about the latest possible dates.” By late April, Arestovych had suggested that the war could last until 2035, in a “worst case scenario.”