Mordmentum builds

Jeremy Hunt and Nadhim Zahawi have crashed out of the battle to succeed Boris Johnson, as Penny Mordaunt becomes the bookies’ favourite.

Six candidates have made it through to the next round of the leadership contest:

Rishi Sunak (88 votes)
Penny Mordaunt (67)
Liz Truss (50)
Kemi Badenoch (40)
Tom Tugendhat (37)
Suella Braverman (32)

Sunak is still in the driving seat, while Team Badenoch will be delighted with a solid fourth place.

But the momentum is behind Mordaunt, as Maggie Pagano predicted last week. If she makes it to the final two, the signs are she’ll win. A bombshell YouGov poll of Tory party members today shows the former defence secretary beating every candidate in a run-off by at least 18 points. According to the poll, Truss would be her closest challenger, bagging 37 per cent of the vote against Mordaunt’s 55.

More than a quarter – 27 per cent – said Mordaunt is the candidate they most want to be the next leader. Kemi Badenoch was a distant second with 15 per cent, followed by Sunak and Liz Truss on 13 per cent. Polling from ConHome earlier in the week told a similar story, and Mordaunt’s odds to be next PM have now dropped below evens on Betfair.

Crucially, Mordaunt is projected to smash Sunak 67 per cent to 28 per cent in a run-off. Truss was also projected to beat Sunak whose only win would have been against Jeremy Hunt, now eliminated.

The usual caveat applies. Polls are just snapshots – often smudged ones – and things can change quickly. But it’s bad news for centrist Davos Man Sunak who, despite his impressive nomination tally, looks vulnerable.

Setting out her stall at a sweltering, crowded launch event at Westminster’s Cinnamon Club today, Mordaunt pledged to slash VAT on fuel and raise income tax thresholds, part of her low tax-small government pitch.

Her speech was big on patriotism. She conjured Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands. She pledged to restore the Conservatives’ sense of self by returning to traditional values. She said Whitehall was broken, and that she would fix it.

Interestingly, Mordaunt distanced herself from comments she had previously made about transgender rights – that trans men are men and trans women are women. She quoted Thatcher as saying that every prime minister needs a “Willie”, referring to Willie Whitelaw, her deputy. “A woman like me doesn’t have one,” said Mordaunt. It was a wink to the party’s right calculated to turn heads. See The Hound for a full run-down of Mordaunt’s campaign launch.

Mordaunt may be riding high in the polls, but don’t discount Liz Truss, who seems to be winning the battle for the Brexit vote. 

Yet the party’s right is now split between Truss, Braverman and Badenoch. Sources from the powerful ERG group are said to be urging the three of them to merge campaigns to blow Sunak and Mordaunt out of the water. 

It’s ironic that Truss, a Cameroon Remainer, has become the Brexiteers’ champion. But she is a free marketeer who has been politically astute enough to shed her pro-membership credentials in a way that appears plausible to hardliners.

The next round is tomorrow. The candidate with the fewest vote will be shown the door.