More problems mount for SNP ahead of crunch by-election

With a week to go until next week’s key Westminster by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West problems are mounting for the SNP leader.

When the Rosebank oilfield was approved this week for drilling and production, SNP first minister Humza Yousaf changed his previously non-committal stance on the issue. It has opened up a split. He said: “I think Rosebank is the wrong decision, Scotland’s future, the northeast’s future, is as the net zero capital not just of Europe but of, I hope, the world.” 

By changing his position, he has run into conflict with the SNP’s energy security and net zero spokesperson and SNP MP for Angus (in the northeast), David Doogan. 

Doogan told BBC Radio Scotland: “I’m not opposing it and whether I oppose it or not is not going to make a scintilla of difference in the parliament I sit in, so you have to be pragmatic.”

This is not the only intra-party disagreement that is a headache for the first minister. 

There is another problem. The decision to suspend party grandee Fergus Ewing, son of late SNP matriarch Winnie, has been met with disapproval from some of his supporters, notably Kate Forbes, Yousaf’s rival. Ewing was suspended for mounting a rebellion against the Green MSP and minister for circular economy Lorna Slater because of her management of the disastrous bottle deposit scheme. 

Forbes, the former party leadership contender and finance secretary, who stood by Ewing’s side as he gave a bold speech in defiance of the ruling, had previously said that the party would have to be “extremely careful” in its choice of punishment for the unlikely rebel. Forbes told journalists: “I have always valued Fergus Ewing as a fellow Highland MSP.” In his speech, Ewing gestured at the ridiculous nature of the situation he found himself in: “I was literally born into the SNP.”

Humza Yousaf missed the vote to suspend Ewing citing illness as did former first minister Nicola Sturgeon due to a prior engagement. What will worry Yousaf is that nine MSPs – quite a rebellion – voted in opposition.

What’s more, Yousaf has been facing criticism after analysis showed that his plan to hike income tax would raise merely a quarter of the £200 million initially stated. 

Figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) suggested that, when accounting for the behavioural changes the tax hike would cause, only £56 million would be raised for Scotland’s depleted coffers. Yousaf and the SNP are trying to rectify a “£1 bn black hole in the Scottish government’s finances”. Scottish Conservative spokeswoman for finance and local government Liz Smith said: “This analysis fully exposes how inefficient the SNP’s plans to hit people with more tax rises would be in reality.”

Disagreements over Rosebank and Fergus Ewing’s suspension combined with new figures undermining the efficacy of potential tax hikes is a cocktail of problems Yousaf would have wanted to avoid a week before the by-election.

The SNP is defending a majority of 5,230, after its MP had to quit after a recall petition flung her out. Margaret Ferrier broke Covid lockdown rules.

Labour is confident but not sounding complacent. If the party wins it will be an earthquake moment confirming the SNP is on the slide. 

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