In what could mark the start of a major new operation, Russian forces launched a ground offensive today into Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city which has become a key symbol of fierce Ukrainian resistance in the war.
Ominous reports emerged this morning that Russian forces had broken through Ukraine’s defensive line and advanced into the northeastern city. Within hours, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced that Kyiv had successfully repelled the attacks, Ukraine’s reserve troops had been moved into the area and fierce fighting now rages along the frontline.
Kharkiv’s regional head, Oleh Syniehubov, was adamant: “Not a single metre has been lost.”
Even so, the military development will intensify pre-existing speculation that capturing the regional capital of Kharkiv is the number one aim of Moscow’s anticipated summer offensive.
Located less than thirty kilometres from the Russian border, firmly on the frontline, Kharkiv is Ukraine’s most vulnerable major city.
After Putin first launched his full-scale invasion over two years ago, there was a mass exodus from Kharkiv. Within a few weeks, the population of a once bustling city, known for its many universities and robust industrial economy, fell from two million to around 300,000.
However, in the Autumn of 2022, after the Ukrainians drove the Russians out of Kharkiv in one of its key counter-offensive victories, more than a million civilians returned.
In recent months, residents have found themselves once again under daily bombardment. Since January, more missiles have struck Kharkiv than at any time since the first few months of the war, as Moscow seeks to exploit Ukraine’s dwindling air defenses.
Some civilians, exhausted by Russia’s relentless aerial attacks, are now fleeing their homes for a second time and heading westward. And those who refuse to do so have come to epitomise the dogged determination widely associated with Ukrainians.
Moscow has destroyed all three of the city’s major power stations yet residents continue to live and work with only a few, unpredictable hours of electricity each day. Over 100 schools have been shelled but thousands of pupils still attend in-person classes, at five of the city’s metro stations which have been converted into underground schools, with teachers, psychologists, and medical staff on site.
If Moscow were to capture Kharkiv, it would deliver a decisive blow to Ukrainian resistance, and morale. But it is no small task. As Maria Avdeeva, a Kharkiv-based Ukrainian security analyst, writes, attempting to do so “would represent by far the Kremlin’s most ambitious undertaking since losing the Battle of Kyiv in early 2022.”
Admittedly, Russia is buoyed up by its recent victories in the smaller, nearby cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Yet even capturing the small eastern city of Avdiivka required some 80,000 Russian troops and months of bloody fighting. Kharkiv is on a different scale altogether.
There are, however, real questions about how much longer residents of Kharkiv can hold on without some much more robust air defenses. And that’s where Kyiv’s allies can do their bit.
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