New Covid strain revives old tensions and upends government strategy

Forget the usual cheers for “Auld Lang Syne”. Instead, it is the Bard’s other great poem that will define the end of this year – with the government’s “best-laid schemes” for a spring revival on the back of mass vaccination in the balance.

Government ministers and officials are engaged in a pre-Christmas scramble to understand the implications of the new variant. Two weeks ago they first received data on a new strain of Covid-19 in the south-east of England. At the key meeting last Friday the Prime Minister, Chancellor and other key figures concluded that tougher restrictions would be needed.

It means the brief interlude of vaccine-inspired optimism has now given way to old frustrations about the government’s handling of the pandemic, as suspicions are raised about the government’s modelling of the new strain, and incoherent communication of new restrictions creates havoc for Christmas plans across the country.

Too little is yet known about VUI–202012/01, the mutated variant of the virus which seems to have accounted for over half of infections in London and the South East this month. The suggestion by NERVTAG, the government’s rapid-response advisory group, that it may be up to 70% more infectious than the usual strain, means that it may be all but impossible to control the spread. During the committee’s meeting on Saturday, it was noted that a clearer dataset would be available later this week, following rapid data-gathering efforts by public health authorities.

The results of those investigations are unlikely to be catastrophic, with little evidence as yet that the new variant is more deadly. They will, however, significantly alter the government’s route-map out of the pandemic. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are “unlikely” to be greatly undermined by the new strain, according to Professor Wendy Barclay at Imperial College London, a member of NERVTAG, but a “possibility” exists “that the ability of the [vaccine] antibodies to see the virus is compromised to some extent, and that’s what we need to check out.” Over half a million doses have already been administered, with 80m scheduled to be rolled out by March.

The messenger RNA (mRNA) technique used to develop the vaccines were constructed synthetically using the viral genetic code, rather than through direct viral samples. There is as yet no evidence that the new strain has altered the gene structure of the virus upon which those synthetic proteins were based.

Meanwhile, the pressure on the government is growing. Already, teachers unions are calling on the government to keep schools closed in January following tentative evidence that the new strain is more infectious among children. A joint report by England’s medical authorities into school infections released last week, however, suggested that the prevalence of the virus in schools was no higher than in the rest of the community. Boris Johnson has announced that a “staggered” approach will be taken to school re-openings in January pending further information on the age variability of the mutation’s impact.

Further uncertainty remains about other aspects of the new strain, including its capacity for re-infection and its detectability. Lateral Flow Tests, which promise 30-minute results, were today authorised in the UK for home use and are being reviewed, alongside standard PCR tests, for their ability to trace the new variant.

The backdrop to these concerns is the increasing number of admissions for Covid-19 in UK hospitals, on a scale last seen in April. While the increase partly reflects an improvement in treatments for vulnerable patients, meaning many are staying longer, it may signal a return to the war-time rhetoric of the first lockdown, with the NHS again taking centre-stage in policy decisions. A full national lockdown is now widely expected from the New Year.

The devolved administrations are also set to toughen their stances on those coming in from Tier 4 zones in England. The new variant now represents a minority of cases in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, for now. Northern Ireland voted down a Sinn Fein motion to ban travel from the mainland, but implemented stricter travel advice in its wake. Most of Scotland will enter Tier 4 restrictions on Boxing Day, and schools will return fully two weeks after originally planned. Wales continues its full lockdown and has ordered travellers from England to self-isolate.

The new strain is reviving old tensions. What was once expected to be a straightforward, if relatively subdued, Christmas Day is rapidly turning into Groundhog Day with the government battling to find a way out.