NHS backlog hits record high – yet again
With less than two months to go until the end of the year, it seems safe to say that Rishi Sunak’s pledge to cut hospital waiting lists by the end of 2024 has been an epic failure: the NHS backlog hit yet another record high of 7.8 million in September, according to new figures out today.
This is up from the previous record of 7.75 million patients in England waiting to begin treatment at the end of August. It means that waiting lists have grown every month since Sunak made his pledge back in January that they would fall.
Today’s data also revealed that over 10,200 patients have been waiting over a year and a half for routine treatment, up from just under 9,000 back in August. This is despite the health service’s previous target to eliminate all 18-month waits by April this year.
An unprecedented wave of industrial disputes in the NHS has perpetuated the problem. Only yesterday, NHS England wrote a letter to hospital bosses in which it said that 40 days of strike action over the past year has cost the health service “around £1 billion, with an equivalent loss of elective activity.” In the letter, it appeared to signal a retreat from its previous aim to slash the number of patients waiting for elective care. Instead, it encouraged hospital trusts to devote resources to “high priority” cases.
Worryingly, the pay dispute between doctors and the government remains unresolved.
Having said that, there is a tentative sign of progress.
Just over a month ago, when junior doctors and consultants unleashed chaos with their three days of dual strike action, the health secretary had not held any talks with BMA union leaders for over 100 days. And none were planned for the future.
However, the BMA -which represents Junior doctors, specialist doctors and consultants – has now confirmed that it is holding off announcing any more strike action for now because it is finally back in talks with the government.
Number 10 has been quiet about these renewed talks – perhaps unsurprisingly. After all, It represents something of a climbdown. Back in July, Sunak insisted that his new pay to consultants and junior doctors – of 6 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively – was “final” and “no amount of strikes will change our decision.”
This means renegotiations won’t be easy – what with the steep demands from junior doctors and consultants for a 35 per cent pay rise and 12 per cent pay rise respectively, to make up for over a decade of pay erosion.
According to Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, an anxious health service is waiting with bated breath as the negotiations continue. “No one should underestimate the impact a resumption of strikes would have on the NHS as we head into winter”, warned Taylor, “It is vital that talks succeed.”
It’s thought that Steve Barclay, health secretary, may attempt to appease doctors through a generous one-off payment, as opposed to a pay rise – a move he can perhaps spin, however unconvincingly, as less of a major u-turn.
It will be still awkward for the government to square any uplift with its previous tough statements about last and final pay offers. But a resumption of strikes would be even more untenable.
The government is in a bind. It can either back down to a militant union or allow the country to be gripped by a fresh wave of NHS industrial action over Christmas.
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