No other way for the Anti-Sturgeon forces – they must beat the SNP in the election

Well, that’s the end of that then. James Hamilton SC, the Irish lawyer, tasked with investigating whether or not the First Minister of Scotland broke the ministerial code, has concluded that she did not.

In section 18.2. of his report, Hamilton says: “For the reasons set out in detail above in this Report I am of the opinion that the First Minister did not breach the provisions of the Ministerial Code in respect of any of these matters.”

No amount of picking through the report and finding criticisms can get round that conclusion. The report may be riddled with redactions and, frankly, strange judgments about what the First Minister did and why. Hamilton draws attention to grievous mistakes made by Sturgeon and the Scottish government, but that counts for little when he concludes by clearing her.

This is – let’s face it – a blow for Sturgeon’s numerous critics. For Unionists of all stripes, and for the considerable pro-Salmond nationalist faction in the SNP and now outside the party, it is a depressing (if unsurprising) moment. How on earth does Sturgeon get away with it?

What the SNP under Sturgeon has done to Scotland is tragic. They have melded party, government and country, abused and concentrated power, trashed the Scottish parliament and propriety, and taken education backwards. All in pursuit of their divisive creed.

What a grim, joyless picture they present of modern Scotland. Even the SNP party branding is consistently naff. The anti-English miserabilist mode of talking means they are constantly demanding; they are never funny or generous, never happy. In sum, they’re about as much fun as a fulminating Church of Scotland minister reading the Sunday Post in 1957, getting annoyed that people have been pictured enjoying themselves somewhere.

What next? The Holyrood committee of inquiry will issue its already partially leaked report. Although Sturgeon misled parliament, it concludes, that decision will now be downgraded with Sturgeon able to claim simple vindication via Hamilton. Her team has already savaged the committee and condemned it as partial even though its swing voter is a pro-independence independent-green MSP, Andy Wightman.

Sturgeon’s opponents miscalculated in raising the expectation that Hamilton could do for the SNP leader. In truth, this was always unlikely. This is not how establishments operate. But in making the news narrative all about a guilty verdict building to a resignation, a resignation that will now not happen, they have turned the result into an anti-climax. ‘Sturgeon cleared’ is the headline.

This means that everything comes down to the bitter election campaign about to get underway and to the ruling of the electorate in May. The expectation until fairly recently was that the SNP was mid-pandemic sailing towards an overall majority and moral validation of the case for separation, on which basis it would demand an independence referendum rerun.

The Sturgeon scandal has knocked that hubristic confidence, although the gloating is resurfacing after the Hamilton report.

Behind the scenes, the SNP leadership is already preparing for the possibility that they fall short at the election, and working on an unconvincing back-up plan. There were reports over the weekend – in the Sunday Times Scotland – that the SNP and the Greens are already plotting a coalition with the Greens given cabinet seats. 

If that happens, Sturgeon will say that is a pro-independence parliament (the Greens also want to break up Britain). That doesn’t wash at all. The Greens in Scotland are a pathetic crew, who’ll do anything for an organic camomile tea and the promise to shut down the North Sea oil industry.

Sturgeon failing to secure a majority after all her claims that Scotland is clamouring for an independence referendum will be – in effect – a defeat and the beginning of the end of her tenure. After Sturgeon, her wing of the party have nothing and no-one. It’s the end of the Salmond-Sturgeon 25 year saga.

This comes down, then, to raw politics, an old-fashioned campaign scramble and fine margins. Just three, four or five points in the share of the vote is the difference between the SNP winning outright and failing.

At least now the opposition parties know they have no choice. They are not going to be saved by inquiries, codes, leaks and the reports of lawyers. The Tories and Labour, under the new and impressive leadership of Anas Sarwar, are going to have to fight Sturgeon on her record. They are going to have to defeat her.