Northern Ireland only backstop could unlock a Brexit compromise deal

Leo Varadkar and Boris Johnson aren’t cut out to get along. But today after Johnson visited Dublin, and the pair appeared on the steps of government buildings, the poor state of their relationship has never mattered more. If there is a deal to be unlocked it will require both to find a way through.

Johnson is frustrated at what he perceives to be Varadkar undermining him every step of the way – making his task on delivering Brexit impossible with his refusal to loosen the backstop. Varadkar is aghast at what he sees as the UK government’s refusal to acknowledge the sanctity of the Good Friday Agreement, and the economic catastrophe a no deal Brexit could bring to the island.

They are both a little bit right. But at a time when Anglo-Irish relations seem to have hit a serious low, there are signs that there is a way through this mess.

The view from Dublin is that Johnson doesn’t want a withdrawal agreement, and his talk of negotiations is just window dressing for a prime minister intent on delivering no deal. That may have been true two weeks ago. But whatever Johnson’s plan was no longer matters since parliament moved against him so decisively. Rebel Tory MPs have either been booted out of the party or are quitting of their own accord; and opposition parties are denying him the election he needs to get Brexit over the line before 31st October.

A revived deal seems like Johnson’s only option now. But with both Dublin and the UK bound by their fundamentally incompatible red lines it is hard to see what that deal will look like. Johnson can’t countenance a deal with a backstop and Ireland can’t countenance a deal without.

But to assume, then, that there is no possible deal is wrong. And, paradoxically, it could be Boris Johnson’s decision to kick out 21 of his own MPs and shrink his majority to -43 that makes it possible by accident.

Why? He no longer needs the DUP.

The confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP consistently bound Theresa May’s hands. When she floated the idea of a Northern Ireland backstop they immediately threatened to withdraw support and collapse her government. But now that Boris Johnson has nothing close to a majority the DUP are functionally obsolete when it comes to propping up his government.

Does that mean a Northern Ireland only backstop could be on the cards? That would mean checks on the sea border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

The DUP originally objected to that proposal under May because it put a border down the middle of the Irish sea, and posed a significant threat to the Union. Both of those things may still be true. And today the DUP’s Arlene Foster reiterated the DUP’s position:

“The Prime Minister has already ruled out a Northern Ireland only backstop because it would be anti-democratic, unconstitutional and would mean our core industries would be subject to EU rules without any means of changing them,” she said.

But, with Boris Johnson desperate not to renege on his promise to deliver Brexit by 31st October, Dublin theoretically open to a Northern Ireland only backstop, the DUP having no technical bearing on the functioning of the government, and a parliament terrified of a no deal Brexit – Theresa May’s deal with a backstop limited to just Northern Ireland, might just pass.

Boris Johnson needs to find a way through somehow. If Dublin is receptive – and they should be – could this be the compromise both sides have constantly mythologised about, but so far failed to deliver? In the weird world of the Brexit crisis, stranger things have happened.