When you’re locking Russia into its role as junior partner on the road to global leadership, you’re not going to let the fact that its president is an indicted suspected war criminal get in the way. So, China’s President Xi walked the red carpet laid out for him by Russia’s President Putin and shook him firmly by the wallet.
Xi claims that the US seeks to “contain, surround and block, and suppress” China’s rise. To counter that, it is necessary to forge a strategic relationship with the only sizeable country which opposes Washington. When US President Richard Nixon went to China in 1972 it was to split the faltering relationship between the People’s Republic and the Soviet Union. It worked. For the foreseeable future there is no such gap in which an American president will be able to drive a wedge. This is Cold War 2.0.
Given that history doesn’t repeat, but does rhyme, this Cold War is different – notably on the economic front. The modern Chinese economy is integrated into the global system whereas the Soviet Union’s was integrated into a basket case. Nevertheless, Cold War 2.0 is being played out across the world, the outlines of the different camps are becoming apparent. Ukraine is only the most obvious battleground.
China, and its junior partner, hope to dismantle the remains of the post Second World War order, much of which was indeed constructed by the US and its allies. Xi would almost certainly have preferred Putin not to have gambled on his reckless and criminal invasion of Ukraine. China is not keen on supporting chopping bits out of countries as it might undermine its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. Nevertheless, once it happened, he had to maintain the fiction of their “unlimited friendship”.
However, the limits to the friendship are shown by the lack of heavy weapons being sent due to Beijing’s fear of suffering secondary sanctions. But that is simply China furthering its own interests, and it has done what it feels it can in supporting Russia. Over the last 13 months it has abstained from UN votes condemning Moscow, and has continued to send it “dual use” equipment, some of which could be used for military purposes. It has also helped keep the Russian economy afloat by taking advantage of Moscow’s cut price oil and gas which are now blocked from the European markets.
The two leaders signed a series of trade deals this week, most favouring Beijing. Because it is cut off from easy access to the euro and dollar, Russia increasingly uses the Yuan in trade payments. Its exports and imports to and from China increase by the year, and its dependency on the People’s Republic will grow.
The pomp and ceremony of the Kremlin’s homage to Xi suits Beijing’s efforts at portraying him as a world statesman and, increasingly, as a problem solver. It came a week after China brokered the re-establishing of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Putin knows Beijing’s 12-point plan for a settlement of the Ukraine war is going nowhere in its current form, but publicly declaring he was “happy to discuss them” helps position Xi as a peace broker.
He is, for now, no such thing, but Beijing’s target audience is not the advanced democracies such as Sweden, Japan, or South Korea – it is in Africa and Latin America. Many African countries take the view that the Ukraine/Russia conflict is a European civil war and refuse to take sides. They also remember that it wasn’t Russia or China which colonised them. Some African leaders have noted that China’s political/economic model of authoritarian capitalism has delivered prosperity for 400 million of its citizens. This undermines the theory that it takes democratic capitalism to create a successful economy.
Hence many countries hedge their bets as Cold War 2.0 kicks into gear. Some actively support Beijing. Brazil’s President, Lula da Silva, supports the 12-point plan and has called for China to take a more active role. This week the Honduran foreign minister has been in Beijing ahead of his country ending its decades long recognition of Taiwan and switching it to China. This will extend Beijing’s footprint in Latin America and leave Taiwan with just 13 countries recognising it as a sovereign state. China will help Honduras with its debt payments and make further investments in a hydroelectric dam project in the country. The Chinese foreign ministry said that Honduras had made the right choice “in line with the trend of historical development and progress of the times”.
Since 2018, El Salvador, Burkina Faso, the Dominican Republic, Kiribati, and the Solomon Islands have all switched recognition to Beijing.
So, is this the “trend of historical development”? Possibly. China is developing a new axis of authoritarian states and dictatorships such as Iran, Eritrea, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Burkina Faso. But set against this is a far more powerful grouping of democratic states.
The “Quad” agreement between India, Japan, Australia, and the US is an example. It was notable that while Xi was in Moscow the Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, was in Kyiv. The NATO alliance is more robust than it has been for many years and about to grow stronger with the accession of Finland and Sweden. Washington shows little sign of wavering in support of Ukraine, and EU unity has mostly held firm.
Individual countries are prepared to act. Last year Lithuania risked the wrath of China by opening a “representative office” in Taipei. In retaliation Beijing banned various Lithuanian imports. The Netherlands, a global leader in high-tech semiconductor chips, has followed the US and restricted their export to China. This week the Chinese ambassador went full “Wolf Warrior Diplomat” in response, telling the Het Financieele Dagblat newspaper: “When damage occurs, we must take action to protect ourselves… it won’t stop with just harsh words.”
Across the globe, the lines are being drawn. This week was a demonstration of how stark they can be. Putin may be a suspected war criminal running a huge mob-owned fuel depot, but he serves one side of that line – Beijing’s.
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