Putin’s plans to destabilise Moldova are ramping up

There are places where they always knew the Cold War never really ended. Moldova is one of them.

It knew Russia would never allow it to go its own way following the collapse of the Russian Empire (disguised as the USSR). As with Georgia and Ukraine, the Kremlin does not see Moldova as a sovereign entity, but as a region which should continue to bend to Russia’s will as it had done for most of the period since being colonised in 1812.

This week there were Moscow-orchestrated pro-Russian demonstrations, and allegations of Kremlin backed coup plans. These are only the latest attempts to bring Moldova to heel. Last week a US official at the White House claimed that Russians “some with current ties to Russian intelligence” were seeking to use the protests “to foment a manufactured insurrection”.

On Sunday, after another demonstration in the capital, Chisinau, police said they had stopped a suspected mercenary from Russia’s Wagner Group from entering the country. Another 181 other foreigners were turned away last week. The security services said they’d arrested seven people trained by Russian intelligence who were part of a plot to overthrow the government.

Last month, the border police prevented a dozen Partizan Belgrade “Ultras” from entering the country ahead of a football match against a team from the mostly Russian speaking breakaway region of Transnistria which was due to be played in Chisinau. The fear was that they had been sent by Russia to cause trouble after the game. Members of a Montenegrin boxing club with alleged ties to Russia were also barred from entering. Such activity has been going on for several years, but the war in Ukraine makes it more dangerous.

Moldova neighbours Ukraine but Transnistria is on the border. There, Moscow garrisons up to 2,000 soldiers backed by several thousand local troops which means Chisinau has no power over that part of Moldova. It also houses one of Europe’s largest arms depots. Russia’s initial battle stance in the first few weeks of its invasion of Ukraine last year suggested it aimed to advance along the Ukrainian Black Sea coast via Odessa and link up with the Russian forces in Transnistria.

Political and military incompetence put paid to that (for now) but fomenting unrest in Moldova remains a useful tool in Moscow’s arsenal. If Russia can engineer just the possibility of regime change in Moldova, Ukraine may need to keep more troops than it would like along the Moldovan/Ukraine border.

So, it is no surprise that the anti-Moldovan government demonstrations taking place are organised by the pro-Russian opposition “Shor Party”. The party is named after Ilan Shor, a Moldovan oligarch who fled the country after being convicted for his role in stealing $1bn from Moldovan banks. Shor is married to a Russian pop singer known as “Jasmin” who President Putin has named as an “Honoured Artiste of the Russian Federation”. The US honoured Shor by putting him on the State Department’s sanctions list as someone who works for Russian interests. The British followed suit.

Shor’s party bankrolls the protests which have continued all winter amid an energy crisis which has seen prices increase seven times as Russia reduced and then cut supplies (Transnistria receives de facto free energy). Shor, and other opposition parties, have harnessed anger at the cost of living and simultaneously tapped into the significant pro-Russian sentiment in Moldova.

Moldova’s 2.6 million-strong population speaks a version of the Romanian language but most also speak Russian, and many go to Russia for their university education as it is much cheaper than in EU countries. Despite the Latin roots of the language the majority adhere to the Greek Orthodox church. Following the end of the Soviet Union the Russians left behind huge numbers of FSB intelligence officers and ever since they have worked to promote pro-Russian politicians.

The current President is, for the Kremlin, a nightmare. Maia Sandu is a Harvard-educated former World Bank economist who won power in 2020 promising to seek membership of the EU. The following year the pro-EU Western Party of Action and Solidarity won a healthy majority in Parliament. Pro-Russian politicians argue that Moldova would be better off joining the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Community. Recent polls suggest just about 61% to 63% of voters want to be part of the EU.

The demonstrations are likely to continue, as are the dozens of hoax bomb threats to state institutions which are designed to undermine stability. Anti-government fake news stories planted on social media will also carry on – a recent one claimed the country was about to introduce conscription.

The pro-Russian side repeatedly insists that President Sandu wants to drag Moldova into war against Russia by joining the Ukrainian side. Last month, they claimed Ukrainian intelligence officers had tried to assassinate the president of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, with a car bomb. Arrests were made, it was claimed, but no evidence offered.

President Sandu reacted to this upsurge in tensions by securing a meeting with President Biden in Warsaw. He pledged $400m in economic support, most of which will be used to subsidise energy prices. The White House said Biden had reaffirmed strong support for Moldova’s territorial integrity. That was a warning to Russia about ever crossing the border, but as the Kremlin knows, it doesn’t necessarily have to do that to take control. 

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