Reasons to be cheerful about Brexit, parts one, two, and three
I began writing this edition of my weekly newsletter aiming for a long list of reasons to be cheerful about the state of the world as we enjoy the gentle glide down the path towards Christmas, but I could not get much beyond the following:
1) The new Star Wars film is as good as the better critics say. I remain a sceptic about the Lucas imaginary galaxy. Although the technology used by the rebels and the evil empire is sophisticated, neither side has progressed to producing art of any kind. Why? All the walls in the Star Wars films are bare. Do they not have any sculpture? There never seem to be any books, other than the occasionally glimpsed “sacred” Jedi texts which look in the films like random volumes from those “buy old books by the yard” sales. Then there is the music. In one of the club scenes in the early films the band plays something that sounds like a Californian Berkeley University LSD casualty’s idea of the future of jazz in about 1972. But as the father of a Star Wars fan, I must say that the whole experience of the new film was wondrous, and properly poignant too in the scenes involving Mark Hamill as old Luke and Carrie Fisher as Princess Lee (is this right?).
2) Roy Moore lost the Senate race in Alabama. That’s good news.
3) It’s almost Christmas.
4) There has not, yet, been a nuclear war with North Korea, although North Korea may well turn out to be the biggest story in 2018. Gulp.
5) It’s almost Christmas.
6) And…
And that’s about it. In my search for good news I’m probably overlooking several encouraging graphs on human development published by classical liberal economic researchers this year, showing that in the last 70 years billions of humans have had their lives transformed for the better thanks to trade liberalisation, health care, medical innovation, economic development, markets, and (in some cases) democracy. That may be the big picture in the long run, but it would be Panglossian to pretend that these particular last twelve months in the West rank as anything other than somewhere between seriously sub-optimal and supreme shit-show.
But at least we, in Britain, have Brexit…
Stop, don’t go! Come back. This is not another treatise on the travails of Britain’s negotiations with the EU, or a demand for those who criticise Brexit to be flogged for unpatriotic moaning.
Incidentally, the abuse directed at those Tory MPs who rebelled this week in the House of Commons bordered on the sinister. The rebel alliance, Star Wars again, sought a “meaningful vote” on the the terms of a Brexit deal before the UK leaves the EU. I cannot quite see the point myself of wanting this stipulated now. If a deal fails the government will be in a state of collapse, and it will all seem somewhat academic.
Nonetheless, those MPs hold a perfectly valid view, and for Brexiteers who campaigned to restore parliamentary sovereignty to talk now of treason over rebellion is bananas. Talk of deselecting MPs, talk that emanates from Brexiteers who have rebelled and caused trouble frequently on other matters themselves, is worse than bananas.
I will not be the only pro-Brexit person who would be more than happy to defend any Tory MPs facing deselection for voting according to their conscience and view on matters of constitutional significance. On second thoughts, I doubt a deselection firing squad at any Conservative Association would take kindly to seeing hacks like me appear as witnesses for the defence of MPs in trouble. It would probably tip the balance in favour of deselection.
But never mind all that, there are reasons to be cheerful about where Brexit stands, whatever your stance, as long as you are not one of the extremists on either side of the argument. Here are my reasons to be cheerful in a Brexity way this Christmas:
1) Brexit is happening. That means we can, or should, move onto trying to make it work. After a long and unedifying argument – with Brexiteers telling critics to be less critical and assorted shenanigans from the moonbat Stop Brexit tendency – the thing is about 15 months away and there will be a premium on practicality and pragmatism. Hurrah.
2) The UK civil service did brilliantly in getting Britain to phase two. It has become fashionable at Westminster to lament the performance of the civil service. Heavyweights in Margaret Thatcher’s day rarely blamed their officials. But from Blair onwards it became an easy get out, for politicians who had never run anything, to blame officials rather than their own shortcomings. There are weak points in the wiring of the modern civil service, and valid concerns that the salaries on offer do not woo as many of the best and brightest as used to be the case. But there are bright, gifted and practical people in there. The team under Olly Robbins in Number 10, working with cabinet secretary Jeremy Heywood, excelled in negotiating with the EU and landing it.
3) If the civil service is getting back a bit of confidence, so is the UK parliament. This is healthy. A lot of power is being returned to Westminster when the UK leaves the EU, and there will have to be a robust debate about how it is to be apportioned and the executive scrutinised after decades in which too much sailed through from the EU.
4) The broad outline of a potential deal is in view. Two years of transition from March 2019 until early 2021, which will be like being in the EU minus MEPs. Hurrah, to the latter point. Then, a political agreement in time for March 2019 on what the future relationship will look like. The British want this document to be extensive, the EU less so. Compromise will be needed on customs and regulation and also on the City – which the eurozone relies on – and so on. Then there will be talks from March 2019 to get a final free trade treaty with the UK as a third country on a free and so-called Canada plus most likely as the outcome. This is what David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, has been aiming for all along.
5) The discussion now comes down to compromises and trade offs. The UK will be outside the single market and the customs union, so how much regulatory alignment is acceptable? Canada is aligned with the US in NAFTA and now the EU in CETA, but it is clearly self-governing.
6) Amusingly, the most determined and aggressive Stop Brexiteers in public life now look, in this new dispensation, lost.
7) Hardline Brexiteers have been found out. Nigel Farage is furious but the old boy no longer has any fizz. He’s the Alan Partridge of Brexit, approaching the wilderness Radio Norwich phase. The wider reckoning on the centre-right is not just about Brexit, however. It is about the limits of free market purity and the revelation – who knew? – that the world is complex. For years the hard line on demanding masses of deregulation produced applause at think tank gatherings or at party conference fringe events, and it became a mantra, easy to recite. I did it. I took part. I plead guilty as someone who has been far too blasé about the miracles of deregulation in the last couple of decades. In Britain, there is simply no widespread demand for dying in a ditch on deregulating our car industry, for example. There will be compromises, and over time some divergence, but not a land of purity in March 2019 as demanded by true believers stuck on auto-play.
8) Thanks to Brexit, whole areas of national life – such as the City – that have had too little cause to pay attention to what happens at Westminster and out in the wider country are having to recalculate and re-engage. This is only the start of a rethink. It could be exciting. We need it approached with some confidence and reforming panache. A northern Powerhouse revived, a commission for the North, the housing crisis fixed for first time buyers and key workers, a rethink of our constitution, radical devolution to the regions, better infrastructure, and pro-enterprise policies to spur the hubs in life sciences and digital, which will make the country more prosperous, are required for starters.
9) Brexit will be good for the EU in the end. The UK’s departure is lamented by countries such as the Netherlands, because we are allies in Brussels. But the British have also been terrible moaners for years, blaming the EU for almost everything. That won’t stop entirely when the UK leaves, because of the need for compromise and some alignment on regulation, but the EU will no longer have to listen to quite as much moaning. As a result, we will all get on better than before. The first manifestation of this new spirit was the warm reception Theresa May got from EU leaders this week at their latest meeting.
10) Did I mention that Nigel Farage is furious and he no longer matters?