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Britain fell silent today, as the world marked Armistice Day. Despite coronavirus restrictions, scaled back commemorations were held across the country, with services in Edinburgh’s Memorial Gardens, Belfast city centre and York Minster. In Westminster, a service attended by Prince Charles, the Duchess of Cornwall and Prime Minister Boris Johnson marked the 100th anniversary of the burial of the Unknown Warrior.
In the United States, President Trump emerged from the White House for the first time since his election defeat to visit the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery. After braving the heavy rainfall to lay a wreath at the site, he made no public comment.
In Paris, Emmanuel Macron rekindled the flame at the foot of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier under the grand Arc de Triomphe. French officials will later move the remains of wartime writer Maurice Genevoix into the nation’s Pantheon of national heroes.
Reasons to be sad, and hopeful
The country has passed an unhappy milestone, with more 50,000 coronavirus-related deaths recorded on the national death toll. “Every death is a tragedy, we mourn everybody who’s gone, and our feelings are with their families and friends as well,” the Prime Minister said, noting the moment.
Yesterday alone, 595 coronavirus-related deaths were recorded, showing how the lag between infections and deaths will likely continue to produce a bleak image in the weeks to come.
Sir Keir Starmer commented that this “grim milestone” is a consequence of government failures. He argued that “the government was slow at phase one and they haven’t learned the lesson going into phase two,” adding: “We’re the first in Europe to hit [50,000 deaths].”
Starmer is right that this is nominally the case, although Belgium and Spain remain the most severely affected countries on a per-capita basis.
That is the bad news. The good news is that infection rates across the country are clearly stabilising. In the North West, the hardest-hit region in recent weeks, cases are declining quite rapidly, down to 69 daily cases per 100,000 from a peak of 120 cases per 100,000. The UK as a whole is down to 36,293 daily cases, a 16.5 per cent reduction from the second wave daily peak in late October.
Estimates from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study suggest that the reproduction rate is 0.8 in the North West and 0.9 across England (any number under 1 means prevalence of the virus is decreasing). If these trends continue, the UK will have suppressed the second wave of infections at a much faster rate than other major European countries, including France.
All of this bodes well for Christmas. Regional restrictions will probably still be in place, but with infections falling considerably in most regions, it seems likely that far fewer people will be in Tier 3 than previously thought when the holiday season arrives.
Who gets jabbed?
“I think the mum test is very important here,” Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam told a press conference this morning. “My mum is 78 and will be 79 shortly, and I’ve already said to her: make sure when you’re called, you’re ready. Be ready to take this up, this is really important for you because of your age. Be ready to be called.”
Following Pfizer’s preliminary vaccine trial results, the government is gearing up for the next stage of its epidemic response: distributing a vaccine. Given Whitehall’s failure to organise an effective test, track and trace programme, ministers are determined to prove their competence this time around.
The first question is of logistics. The nature of Pfizer’s MRNA vaccine requires it to be stored in minus-78 degree temperature at all times, which would prove to be an expensive, logistical nightmare for any government. Downing Street is therefore hoping that the Oxford vaccine candidate, which can be stored at temperatures of between 2.0-8.0 degrees Celcius, is granted regulatory approval before or at around the same time as Pfizer’s.
Second, while the British government has pre-ordered enough vaccines for five doses per person, there is simply not the infrastructure to vaccinate everyone within a year. It will have to prioritise certain groups, which could prove to be very contentious. The elderly, especially those in care homes, will be the first priority – but who’s next in line? Ethnic minorities with hypertension? Diabetics? What about diabetics under 50?
As of today, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is still debating which groups should be included in the second phase of the vaccine rollout, after those in care homes and aged over 80 are dealt with. “We have not decided who else should be vaccinated beyond phase one,” said Professor Wei Shen Lim, chairman of the committee. “That’s not to say that they shouldn’t be vaccinated.”
The JCVI’s priority list is subject to constant change. Expect debate within the committee, and indeed across society, to heat up as the prospect of vaccination edges closer to reality.
Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter