Rise of the populist right in Portugal and France

On a day when the Farage-backed Reform party is celebrating bagging its first seat in UK parliament, right-wing populists in France and Portugal are busy enjoying their own growing influence.

There is only one political party in Portugal which can convincingly claim that Sunday’s snap election was a clear-cut success and that is the far-right Chega (Enough) party.

The election, called after Socialist Prime Minister António Costa stood down amid corruption allegations, saw turnout rise to 66 per cent, the highest in Portugal for years. The country’s centre-right, Social Democrat-led Democratic Alliance has narrowly secured victory but fell far short of a majority, gaining 79 out of 230 seats while the centre-left Socialist Party, which has ruled for the last eight years, won 77 seats.

Meanwhile, the Chega party made dramatic gains, quadrupling its number of seats in Parliament to 48. Five years after it burst onto the political scene, the populist party, led by former football pundit André Ventura, has firmly consolidated itself as Portugal’s third-largest political force, following a campaign focused on corruption and immigration. 

“This is the night that two-party rule ended in Portugal,” Ventura told cheering supporters today, adding that his party “stands ready to be part of a government”.

Other political parties in Portugal have to date refused to work with the Chega party. And centre-right leader Luis Montenegro has ruled out negotiating power-sharing with Ventura, despite falling far short of a majority. 

But it’s difficult to see how parliament can realistically refuse to cooperate with a party now backed by such a considerable portion of the electorate. With its hefty number of seats in parliament, it will be tricky for legislation to get passed without the Chega party. 

In France, meanwhile, Marine Le Pen’s right wing, populist National Rally party seems to be going from strength to strength. 

Polling published today in Le Monde predicts Le Pen will achieve her biggest victory yet in June’s European elections, securing over 30 per cent of the vote, well ahead of president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, pitted to secure 18 per cent. 

Le Pen, 55, has presented her party as a France-first populist vehicle standing up for the little guy. She has vowed to install a policy of “national priority” by which French nationals would be given preferential access to jobs, benefits and social housing over foreigners, even those paying taxes in France. 

At the same time, she has sought to distance herself from her xenophobic, far-right father and attempted to create a more acceptable face for her party. 

The National Rally’s popularity has been further boosted by the formidable political force at Le Pen’s side, Jordan Bardella.

Le Pen ceded the National Rally’s presidency to her charistmatic 28-year-old protégé at the end of 2022. And Paris-born Bardella is a fast-rising star. According to a poll released earlier this month, Bardella is now the second-most popular politician in France, behind only former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe.

Le Pen and Bardella are positioning themselves as the perfect pair to lead France in 2027 with her as president and him as prime minister.

In fact, Macron’s appointment of 34-year-old Gabriel Attal as president has been widely interpreted as a direct response to the threat posed by Bardella: both men are young and quick-witted. 

Though judging from current polling, Attal’s appointment is, so far, to no avail. Political leaders on the continent look set to ride a wave of populism in their respective countries as this summer’s European Parliament election looms. 

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