Rishi races out of the blocks

Rishi Sunak has officially launched his bid for Tory leader, with a slick promotional video that must have been months in the making.

The oven-ready pitch is light on policy and heavy on cringe. Although it begins with Sunak telling the tale of his grandmother, who came over to Britain in the 1960s, worked hard, and laid the foundations for her family’s success.

It’s an incredible story. But is it enough to beat the other big hitters?

Sunak is the third candidate to launch their campaign, along with Suella Braverman (a no-hoper) and Tom Tugendhat (a dark horse). Ben Wallace is also poised to announce his bid, while Liz Truss, Nadhim Zahawi, and Sajid Javid have all indicated they will stand. Penny Mordaunt is yet to declare, but as Maggie Pagano writes, she is the candidate to watch.

As the jostling to succeed Boris Johnson kicks into gear, the question remains: when will he go?

The PM is planning to stay until a successor is appointed, which could take until October.

But Sir Keir Starmer – who will have breathed a huge sigh of relief today after being cleared by Durham police of breaking lockdown rules over “beergate” – wants the PM gone now, as do a good chunk of Tory MPs.

Labour is threatening a vote of no-confidence in Johnson to push him out in a matter of weeks. According to Angela Rayner, the party could table the motion “as early as next week.” 

A motion called by Labour would require a majority in the house to pass – if the government loses the vote, it has 14 days to regain the confidence of MPs in another vote. Labour, however, could use that time to try to form its own government.

If MPs don’t come to an agreement on a new PM and government, then a general election must be called within seven weeks of the vote.

The prospect of a general election might spook any Tory MPs hostile to Johnson into voting with the government against such a motion.

Yet a no-confidence vote may not be needed. If the Tory party gets its leadership election up and running sooner rather than later, it might be able to push Boris out of Number 10 before Parliament goes into recess on 21 July.

The timescale of the two-stage election – which begins with parliamentary voting, and then sees two frontrunners fight for votes from the Tory membership – is decided by the backbench 1922 Committee.

This process usually takes a few months, but with the summer recess looming, pressure is on the Tories to find a new leader. The ‘22 will meet on Monday to set the timetable, and it’s understood that it wants the first round wrapped up before the break. Hold onto your hats…